This week’s data and Nvidia earnings (Feb 26) are pivotal.
Options Positioning
Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts.
Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets.
Key Strikes:
NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps
ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment.
OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools.
OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+
80M), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%).
Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV.
Key Data Releases and Impact
Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 liftsES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100.
Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears.
Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950.
Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume.
Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
Options Positioning
Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts.
Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets.
Key Strikes:
NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps
ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment. OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools.
OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+
80M), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%).Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV.
Key Data Releases and Impact
Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 lifts
ES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100. Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears.
Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950.
Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume.
Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.