ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A BREAKOUT - INVERSE H&S

21 mar 2018

I've had my eye on EURNZD for a while now, but more recently in the last week or two. The Euro has over the last week (actually since April 2017, but what's 12 months between ticks) staged quite the bullish run and the charge seems to be in full momentum (I should know on account of being on the wrong side of it recently and donating some to the market).
Most noticeably is the formation of an Inverse (or Inverted... take your pick) Head and Shoulders setup on the Dailies (1D, Daily Chart) which is beginning to look quite ripe for the picking and providing a nice trend following, swing trade long opportunity for those who like that kind of stuff (and by that I mean anybody interested in making some profit from the markets :D)
Price action is currently testing a pretty significant level of resistance at previous structure highs, which pretty much lines up with the neckline of the aforementioned Inverse H&S.
Having done our I (Identification) and P (Prediction), the only other question now is how do we get involved i.e. what is our D (Decision)?
Dropping down to the lower time frames (1H to be precise-see chart below), this pair has setup a very nice Double bottom preparing us for a potential 2618 Entry opportunity to get involved.
IF price can retrace to the 61.8% or deeper of the confirmation leg (right leg of the Double Bottom) to the most recent highs, THEN this could provide a very decent entry opportunity with a pretty nice Reward to Risk ratio.
Alternatively, IF price breaks and closes above the resistance level (which we just got on the 1H as I type this) and stages a further advance, THEN I'd be waiting for a retracement into resistance now turned support or possibly (ideally) lower into about the 1.7100 even handle for an opportunity to get involved.

It is worth noting that both the U.S (of A) and New Zealand will be releasing interest rate decisions later on today (18:00 GMT for the U.S and 20:00 GMT for New Zealand), both of which could significantly affect the outcome of this analysis. So I would be treading carefully or stay out until after the data releases.



As always, glad to share my observations of the market but the real work is yours to do. These are just my opinions and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to trade. If you do take a trade based on this analysis, please note you do so at your own risk so be sure to do your own analysis and confirm to yourself the trade meets YOUR rules and trading plan, that the risk is worth it to you and you have fully acknowledged and accepted the risk involved.

Good luck in your trades community. Wishing you all lots of success, consistency and bank :)

21 mar 2018

Trade attivo

Ok, we're in this on a 2618 entry basis.

Entry is at the mid point between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement at 1.7070 even
Stops have been adjusted to lower levels than an ATR based stop would generate, to give the trade room to breathe at 1.6987
Initial Targets are just below previous structure identified on the 1D at 17221
Risk: 83 pips
Reward: 151 pips
Let's see how this plays out

23 mar 2018

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

So, got stopped out for a full lose of 83 pips on this trade.


So it's some post trade analysis, back to the drawing board (as necessary) and then on to the next potential opportunity for moi.
Started out quite promising, scared us a little, showed a little moxie there for a spell but alas, the bears ruled the roost on this one (at least till my donation was made).
In any case, followed the plan and stuck to my rules, so chucking this one down to a good trade despite the lose unless my post trade analysis tells me different.

SO CALLING THIS ONE: GAVE IT A GOOD EFFORT BUT ALAS THE PATIENT DIDN'T MAKE IT. EUR/NZD 83 PIP LOSE. POSTMORTEM UNDERWAY!!!