Turkish Lira - Doesn't look good...
Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs:
After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes.
But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars.
The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either.
In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief.
The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty :
Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board.
After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone.
A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable?
By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple.
IMF/NATO/ The West:
In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace''
In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier.
(remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy).
So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira.
Who is more affected?
The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future.
Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature.
May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one:
and may instead can be another epic rebound: 
After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes.
But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars.
The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either.
In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief.
The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty :
Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board.
After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone.
A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable?
By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple.
IMF/NATO/ The West:
In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace''
In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier.
(remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy).
So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira.
Who is more affected?
The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future.
Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature.
May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one:
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