Deciding moment for EURUSD - strategy for both ways

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EURUSD seems to be on the verge of massive fall if not in a turning point.

Scenario with lower low might bring us to new uptrend motivated by trade war in USA with countries around the world or some else reasons which could make dollar weak, please tell what can cause this in your opinion. On the other side Europe is handling its problems quite well so that might push EUR up.
35% chances

Second scenario will led us to new lows in probably rapid way. Last moves suggests high risk of that way in our near future. Reasons for that might be a pragmatic approach of USA to possible domestic and global financial challenges. Europeans (like we often do) tend to hide everything behind smile and fake words of politically affected decision makers who have no long-term perspective, are not tied up with idea of one Eurozone or EU.
65% chances

Position:
LONG at start but with SL just below lowest price of hourly candle: 1.15587
Switch to short just after reaching previous low from 30 May: 1.15258
Trade attivo
Increase in long position. 1.15 is a turning point.
istantanea
Beyond Technical AnalysisChart PatternsTrend Analysis

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