EURUSD - Bulls vs Bears – Price levels to watch out for!

6 giorni fa

🌍 Market Overview:
Currently, EURUSD is showing strength as the US dollar is experiencing bearish pressure, influenced by the recent news regarding tariffs imposed on certain goods. The new tariffs, aimed at curbing certain imports, have created uncertainty around the dollar's stability. This macroeconomic development is creating a favorable environment for the euro, pushing the pair higher as investors seek alternatives to the weakening USD.

Additionally, the broader economic landscape supports euro strength, with improving Eurozone economic data and a more stable inflation outlook compared to the US. These factors have contributed to the recent bullish momentum seen on EURUSD.

📈 Technical Overview:
After a significant bullish move, the market appears to be overextended, signaling that a cooldown might be imminent. The rapid price increase left behind several imbalances that need to be filled for the market to maintain a healthy structure. When price moves in one direction without much pullback, it often creates inefficiencies or gaps in the order flow that the market tends to fill before continuing the primary trend.

Looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels, the 0.382 level aligns with a minor zone of interest, but the more significant confluence lies between the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone is often referred to as the golden pocket, where price typically reacts during corrections in trending markets. Furthermore, this retracement zone perfectly overlaps with the strong past resistance zone that is now expected to act as support.

🔍 Expected Move:
The expectation is that EURUSD will first tap into the higher supply zone marked in the chart before initiating a corrective move to the downside. The supply zone represents an area where institutional selling pressure could be present, causing a rejection to the downside. The corrective move is anticipated to fill the imbalances left behind during the bullish rally, making the price action healthier and more sustainable in the long run.

The anticipated pullback is likely to target the 1.05000 - 1.06000 area, aligning with the golden pocket and strong support level. This zone offers a high probability for a bullish reaction, making it an ideal point for potential buy entries.

🔑 Key Confluences for the Target Zone:

1. Golden Pocket Level: This Fibonacci retracement area is a high-probability zone for price reversals in trending markets.
   
2. Past Resistance Turned Support: The strong resistance zone that was broken during the bullish rally is expected to act as a support on the way down, offering further confluence for buy entries.
   
3. Imbalance Filling: The fast price movement left inefficiencies in the market that are likely to be filled during the retracement, contributing to a healthier market structure.
   
4. Psychological Levels: The 1.05000 level is a round number that often acts as psychological support in the market, further increasing the likelihood of a bullish reaction.
   
5. Market Sentiment: Bearish USD sentiment caused by recent tariffs and economic uncertainty provides a supportive backdrop for the euro, aligning with the technical setup.
   

📝 Trade Idea Summary:

• Wait for a tap into the higher imbalance zone before considering short positions.
  
• Target the 1.05400 - 1.05000 zone for partial profits.
  
• Watch price action around the golden pocket and past resistance level for potential bullish reactions.
  
• Confirm the trade idea with lower time frame structure shifts before entering.
  
• Monitor economic news related to US tariffs and Eurozone economic releases to align with the technical analysis.
  

Better overview:

⚠️ Risk Management:

• Use a stop loss above the imbalance zone for short entries to limit risk.
  
• Consider scaling into long positions at the golden pocket zone with a tight stop below the 1.04800 level.
  
• Aim for a 2:1 or 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio to maintain a favorable trade setup.
  

This trade idea combines technical analysis with market fundamentals to anticipate the next potential EURUSD move. By aligning multiple confluences, the setup offers a high-probability opportunity for both short-term and medium-term traders.

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4 giorni fa

Trade attivo

It looks like we are rejecting the zone right now. Waiting for the pullback now!

ieri

Trade chiuso manualmente

It looks like eurusd is keeping strong buying pressure so i'm closing this trade