FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Looking For Wave (c) & Wave (B) End

11 ott 2015

I haven't posted a full analysis here in awhile so I'll post one now. I do a FULL ANALYSIS on every pair I trade normally once a month. Although that goes out to my private clients regularly, I don't always manage to post it here. So here it is....

But first, some posting notes. This analysis is comprehensive and LONG. Too long for the allowable post length for a single post. So what I am doing is breaking the report up into separate posts to which you must click on each post link below in order to be able to read the full report and understand the analysis. Here we go.....

Since the first thing you see if the MAIN CHART above, let me go over it first.

WAVE COUNT
What you are looking at is the 4HR chart of the current price action. In trying to make sense out of the correction here, I have attempted to label the waves count in several different ways. I'm not going to show all of them here as it would be too cluttered and make this post even longer than it already is. The count I am showing is the one I favor. Doesn't mean it is the correct one and entirely accurate but as long as it leads me to be in the right side of the market is what matters to me. In this wave count, there must be a down move to complete the wave (c) and the wave (B). The question then becomes, "Where will it complete?".

PATTERNS
There are 3 patterns that I have drawn here that have relevance to my scenario and "fit" my wave count. One is a COMPLETED butterfly in which prices are now testing it's PRZ. The other 2 POTENTIAL patterns are a bat and a crab. Both of which complete very close to each other. Should one or both complete, that may be a good place to get short.

WOLFE WAVE
I've also drawn in a POSSIBLE Wolfe Wave. Please see the DAILY CHART section below for more on it.

To understand why it is that I am looking lower, you've got to see the bigger picture. And just because I am looking lower, this doesn't mean that I am overall bearish on this pair. In fact, I am VERY, VERY BULLISH on this pair. What I believe will happen is that we will see a push lower and then we will see a LARGE move up occur. But I'm getting ahead of myself here. Let's first take a look at the BIG picture....

PART I: MONTHLY CHART

PART II: WEEKLY CHART

PART III: DAILY CHART

MY TRADE PLAN
I am waiting right now to see how the current price action plays out before I decide to take a position on this pair. I am still holding a LONG position on this pair from 1.08800 on a trade I took back on August 4th 2 months ago (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #4: EURUSD:All Roads Lead to Wave 3. Focus On The Gartley"). I am still VERY BULLISH on this pair and havve been for months now and am looking to add more LONG positions. Should prices go as I am predicting, not only am I looking to get SHORT for a ride down the (B) wave, but I am looking for good opportunities to add LONGS. But for now, just waiting for PA to tell me something......


*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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