Technical developments on EUR/USD shifts to a bullish bias
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
In the early stages of March, as you can see, the market manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. However, leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged, price has reversed gains and revisited demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from previous analysis -
Following a precipitous decline from supply at 1.1540/1.1486, an area located within the confines of the said monthly demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, the 200-day SMA gave way in recent trading. This rolled price action to near-four-week lows at 1.0801, stationed a few points ahead of demand coming in at 1.0680/1.0781, which happens to reside within the current monthly demand zone.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator recently dethroned the 50.00 value, suggesting we’re heading for oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
Technical developments on the H4 timeframe witnessed a retest at the underside of demand-turned supply from 1.1038/1.1072. Renewed downside kicked in early Europe, registering fresh weekly lows and testing an interesting combination of support. Comprised of a deep 88.6% Fib retracement at 1.0857, a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1172) and channel support (1.1055), H4 action reversed in solid form, closing at highs.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday flow observed the shared currency succumb to dollar upside Wednesday, largely disregarding ECB headlines.
From a technical standpoint, price staged a healthy recovery off a 161.8% Fib ext. level north of 1.08 at 1.0808 and since reclaimed 1.09+ status. This potentially paves the way for further gains today towards clear-cut resistance at 1.0954, with a break exposing the widely watched 1.10 figure and demand-turned supply at 1.1044/1.1024: the origin of the most recent downswing.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price seen grasping the top edge of familiar demand at 1.0488/1.0912, daily price turning higher just north of demand at 1.0680/1.0781, H4 price rebounding from a combination of support around 1.0857 and H1 crossing 1.09 to the upside will likely be perceived as a bullish market today.
A retest at 1.09 is likely a watched setup, with 1.0954 (H1 resistance) pencilled in as the initial target, followed by 1.10.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of February witnessed EUR/USD revisit the upper limit of demand at 1.0488/1.0912 – a noteworthy area given the momentum derived from its base – and pencil in an appealing (bullish) hammer candlestick pattern.
In the early stages of March, as you can see, the market manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. However, leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unchallenged, price has reversed gains and revisited demand mentioned above at 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from previous analysis -
Following a precipitous decline from supply at 1.1540/1.1486, an area located within the confines of the said monthly demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352, the 200-day SMA gave way in recent trading. This rolled price action to near-four-week lows at 1.0801, stationed a few points ahead of demand coming in at 1.0680/1.0781, which happens to reside within the current monthly demand zone.
What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the RSI indicator recently dethroned the 50.00 value, suggesting we’re heading for oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
Technical developments on the H4 timeframe witnessed a retest at the underside of demand-turned supply from 1.1038/1.1072. Renewed downside kicked in early Europe, registering fresh weekly lows and testing an interesting combination of support. Comprised of a deep 88.6% Fib retracement at 1.0857, a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1172) and channel support (1.1055), H4 action reversed in solid form, closing at highs.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday flow observed the shared currency succumb to dollar upside Wednesday, largely disregarding ECB headlines.
From a technical standpoint, price staged a healthy recovery off a 161.8% Fib ext. level north of 1.08 at 1.0808 and since reclaimed 1.09+ status. This potentially paves the way for further gains today towards clear-cut resistance at 1.0954, with a break exposing the widely watched 1.10 figure and demand-turned supply at 1.1044/1.1024: the origin of the most recent downswing.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price seen grasping the top edge of familiar demand at 1.0488/1.0912, daily price turning higher just north of demand at 1.0680/1.0781, H4 price rebounding from a combination of support around 1.0857 and H1 crossing 1.09 to the upside will likely be perceived as a bullish market today.
A retest at 1.09 is likely a watched setup, with 1.0954 (H1 resistance) pencilled in as the initial target, followed by 1.10.