EurUSD Trade Idea
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The case is as follows.
The greater trend appears to be toward the upside.
Assuming my elliott wave is correct, we are currently in the 5th wave of the higher trend.
Evidence for this is as follows:
There has been a clear wave 1-2-3 developement.
Wave one was followed by deep and short zigzag.
Following the zigzag downwards, we see a clear, extened wave 3.
What I enjoy about this wave count, is that is possesses alternation in the greater wave structure. Assuming my count is correct, the wave 2 was a short and deep zigzag followed by a longer, sideways flat correction.
Of course there are some concerns around what I call the wave three.
Concern number 1: There appears to be no alternation in the wave three.
I argue that this is still a wave three because according to elliottwave guidelines for the impulse wave, when a wave is extended, it is common to see short corrective waves and larger impulse waves. This is a trait that we see in our wave 3 for Euro/USD.
Concern 2: There appears to be a really short wave 5 in the wave 3.
My explanation for this is that we have traveled a great distance in the waves 1 and 3, which resulted in less bullish momentum for the wave 5. The common projection for the wave 3 is a 1.618 of wave 1, but we can see that it had alread reached this extension by the end of the wave 3 of the larger wave 3. As a result of this, I don't see the shorter wave 5 as a problem.
Concern 3: The wave 4 of the greater trend
The wave 4 of the greater trend gave me doubts about posting, but I strongly believe that I should put myself out there so I can learn from my failures, should there be any.
This 4th wave appears to be a flat, but I am unsure about the substructure of it. A 3-3-5 makes sense, but the wave 1 of the wave 5 we are seeing now isn't as strong as I would like it to be.
My other idea for this would be a count that makes this 4th wave an undeveloped triangle. Should this be the case, we will be seeing a wave 4 that continues for a while longer.
The reason against the triangle, was I was I found it hard to reason why the wave B of the triangle has surpassed the top of the wave 3. In addition to this, the waves of a triangle typically retrace 0.61% of the prior wave, but as we can see, this is not the case.
As a result of this, I conclude, that a flat has just finished and we will be seeing a 5th wave move to the 1.2 price target.
In this event, using the mika.k time prediction technique, I expect the wave 5 to end around 10 AM on april 14.
This wave count will be discredited if we see a move beyond the low of the wave 4, which is 1.18716.
All in all, I am probably 80% confident in this trade.
As I tried to justify the wave count, a thought came into my head that made me want to refer to other forms of analysis, such as rsi, and macd, to support my count, but this would show that I lack faith in my elliottwave abilities and these tools would act as a crutch for me. I would simply use them to justify whatever I wanted to see.
If I want to get better at trading, I must learn to trade using one simple method and master that, which is why you don't see me refering to any other form of technical analysis.
Finally, I felt nervous writing this post since I feel like I am on a hot streak. No matter what happens I am happy to say that I waited for this move to unfold before I posted about it. I didn't guess, but instead, I waited all day until I saw an opportunity a clear wavecount. I believe I am well on my way to becoming one of the greatest traders to ever live.
The greater trend appears to be toward the upside.
Assuming my elliott wave is correct, we are currently in the 5th wave of the higher trend.
Evidence for this is as follows:
There has been a clear wave 1-2-3 developement.
Wave one was followed by deep and short zigzag.
Following the zigzag downwards, we see a clear, extened wave 3.
What I enjoy about this wave count, is that is possesses alternation in the greater wave structure. Assuming my count is correct, the wave 2 was a short and deep zigzag followed by a longer, sideways flat correction.
Of course there are some concerns around what I call the wave three.
Concern number 1: There appears to be no alternation in the wave three.
I argue that this is still a wave three because according to elliottwave guidelines for the impulse wave, when a wave is extended, it is common to see short corrective waves and larger impulse waves. This is a trait that we see in our wave 3 for Euro/USD.
Concern 2: There appears to be a really short wave 5 in the wave 3.
My explanation for this is that we have traveled a great distance in the waves 1 and 3, which resulted in less bullish momentum for the wave 5. The common projection for the wave 3 is a 1.618 of wave 1, but we can see that it had alread reached this extension by the end of the wave 3 of the larger wave 3. As a result of this, I don't see the shorter wave 5 as a problem.
Concern 3: The wave 4 of the greater trend
The wave 4 of the greater trend gave me doubts about posting, but I strongly believe that I should put myself out there so I can learn from my failures, should there be any.
This 4th wave appears to be a flat, but I am unsure about the substructure of it. A 3-3-5 makes sense, but the wave 1 of the wave 5 we are seeing now isn't as strong as I would like it to be.
My other idea for this would be a count that makes this 4th wave an undeveloped triangle. Should this be the case, we will be seeing a wave 4 that continues for a while longer.
The reason against the triangle, was I was I found it hard to reason why the wave B of the triangle has surpassed the top of the wave 3. In addition to this, the waves of a triangle typically retrace 0.61% of the prior wave, but as we can see, this is not the case.
As a result of this, I conclude, that a flat has just finished and we will be seeing a 5th wave move to the 1.2 price target.
In this event, using the mika.k time prediction technique, I expect the wave 5 to end around 10 AM on april 14.
This wave count will be discredited if we see a move beyond the low of the wave 4, which is 1.18716.
All in all, I am probably 80% confident in this trade.
As I tried to justify the wave count, a thought came into my head that made me want to refer to other forms of analysis, such as rsi, and macd, to support my count, but this would show that I lack faith in my elliottwave abilities and these tools would act as a crutch for me. I would simply use them to justify whatever I wanted to see.
If I want to get better at trading, I must learn to trade using one simple method and master that, which is why you don't see me refering to any other form of technical analysis.
Finally, I felt nervous writing this post since I feel like I am on a hot streak. No matter what happens I am happy to say that I waited for this move to unfold before I posted about it. I didn't guess, but instead, I waited all day until I saw an opportunity a clear wavecount. I believe I am well on my way to becoming one of the greatest traders to ever live.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
A great analysis on my part. The high for the pair was hit at around 19:00 toronto time which means that my prediction was a bit off. I am having trouble predicting the exact time, but I definitely see that the Mika K timeline technique is effective in confirming a wave count.
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