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As concerns about a recession in the U.S. grow, expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September FOMC meeting have strengthened, leading to a weaker dollar. The yen’s strength, driven by the yen carry trade, also contributed to the dollar’s decline. However, as these issues have begun to stabilize, the dollar has rebounded, and the expectation of a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now seems more likely.

Meanwhile, the ECB is also expected to cut rates in September, with the anticipated cut being 25bp.

- On August 13, the U.S. Producer Price Index for July will be released.
- On August 14, the U.K. Consumer Price Index for July and the U.S. Consumer Price Index for July will be released.
- On August 15, the U.S. Retail Sales data for July will be released.

The EURUSD is following a short-term uptrend, but is currently facing resistance at the highs. It is expected that there will be a pullback to the lower trendline, and after forming a low around the 1.07500 level, a renewed upward movement is likely. However, there is a possibility that support from the previous downtrend line could lead to a stronger upward move, which could result in an expansion of the trend.

If the market moves differently than expected, I will quickly adjust the strategy.
Support and ResistanceTrend AnalysisTrend Lines

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Declinazione di responsabilità