EURUSD ANALYSIS REPORT FOR H4 TIME FRAME

27 nov 2024

The chart provided is a 4-hour timeframe of EUR/USD with key technical elements highlighted, such as Fibonacci channels, resistance and support zones, and volume data. Here's a comprehensive analysis, detailing both bullish and bearish scenarios with potential entry and exit points.
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Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Channel:
o The pair has been trading within a well-defined descending channel marked by red trendlines.
o Recent price action is showing attempts to break above the midline of the channel.
2. Support Zones:
o 1.0350–1.0400: Strong demand zone where buyers previously stepped in.
o 1.0450–1.0475: Current support level where price has bounced recently.
3. Resistance Zones:
o 1.0535–1.0550: Immediate resistance within the channel, as indicated by red shaded zones.
o 1.0640–1.0655: A higher resistance area aligning with the Fibonacci level and channel top.
o 1.0810–1.0830: Major resistance, representing a potential target for a bullish breakout.
4. Volume Analysis:
o Delta volume indicates higher selling pressure (-188.43%), suggesting hesitation for an immediate breakout. However, buying interest is noted near the recent lows.
5. Fibonacci Channels:
o Price is attempting to move toward the upper region of the channel and align with Fibonacci-based targets.
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Bullish Scenario:
1. Conditions for a Bullish Move:
o Price must break above 1.0535–1.0550, overcoming the resistance within the descending channel.
o A sustained close above the channel would confirm bullish momentum.
2. Entry Points:
o Aggressive Entry: Buy near the current level (1.0470–1.0480) with a stop-loss below 1.0440, targeting resistance zones.
o Conservative Entry: Enter on a breakout above 1.0535 with a retest confirmation, targeting higher Fibonacci levels.
3. Exit Points (Take Profit):
o First Target: 1.0550 (immediate resistance).
o Second Target: 1.0640–1.0655 (Fibonacci channel top and horizontal resistance).
o Final Target: 1.0810–1.0830 (major resistance and extended target).
4. Invalidation:
o A break below 1.0440, signaling that the downtrend remains intact.
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Bearish Scenario:
1. Conditions for a Bearish Move:
o Price must fail to break above 1.0535 or reverse near the resistance at 1.0550–1.0600.
o If the current support at 1.0470 breaks, further downside is expected.
2. Entry Points:
o Aggressive Entry: Short near 1.0535–1.0550 if price struggles to break above resistance. Stop-loss above 1.0570.
o Conservative Entry: Sell after a breakdown below 1.0450, targeting lower support zones.
3. Exit Points (Take Profit):
o First Target: 1.0400 (strong demand zone).
o Second Target: 1.0350 (historical support).
o Final Target: 1.0300–1.0280 (extended bearish target).
4. Invalidation:
o A break above 1.0570, signaling a potential bullish breakout.
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Key Indicators to Watch:
1. Volume Activity:
o Increased buy volume near 1.0450 could confirm bullish pressure.
o Strong sell volume near resistance (1.0535–1.0550) would favor the bearish scenario.
2. Descending Channel Break:
o A breakout of the channel and sustained close above 1.0550 could shift the momentum to the upside.
3. Fibonacci Alignment:
o Watch how price interacts with the Fibonacci levels within the channel, as it provides targets for both bullish and bearish moves.
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Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points:
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish 1.0470–1.0480 (Aggressive) or above 1.0535 (Conservative) 1.0440 1.0550, 1.0640, 1.0810
Bearish 1.0535–1.0550 (Aggressive) or below 1.0450 (Conservative) 1.0570 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300
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Conclusion:
• Bullish Outlook: A breakout above 1.0535 could lead to a rally toward 1.0640 or even higher.
• Bearish Outlook: Failure to break resistance at 1.0535–1.0550 or a break below 1.0450 could resume the downtrend targeting 1.0350 or lower.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the 1.0535 resistance and 1.0450 support for directional clarity.