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The Swing Strategy, I been using

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Zone‑to‑Zone Trading

1.1 Drawing the Zones

What is a zone?
A price area (not a single line) where the market repeatedly reacts: flips from support→resistance (S/R) or resistance→support (R/S), stalls, or coils.

Priority by timeframe:
Monthly ≥ Weekly ≥ Daily ≥ Hourly. Higher‑timeframe zones carry more weight.

How to mark zones

Start on monthly, and highlight obvious S/R bands.

Drill down to weekly, refine, or add.

Drill down to daily, refine, or add.

Drill down to hourly for tactical entries.

Clues for a quality zone

Prior breakout level that later flips to S/R on retest and consolidates before resolution.

Clear historical reaction clusters (wicks, bodies, or gaps).

Visible “sensitivity” (multiple rejections/holds in the same area).

1.2 Trading the Zones

Entry: Wait for local consolidation near a zone, then take the breakout.

Stops:

Conservative: Below the box low (consolidation floor).

Tight: Mid‑box (accept higher stop‑out rate, better R).

Filter:

Longs only above 50 SMA, shorts only below 50 SMA (trend filter).

1.3 Range vs. Exact Level

Treat zones as bands, not one price tick. I would take the pivot close to the opening of the first red candle if it's a bullish pivot.

At times a single line is acceptable (e.g., clean, repeated close‑basis pivot), but default to ranges.

2) Box System
2.1 Market Phases

Sideways (consolidation) → build energy (boxes form between zones).

Trending → series of HH/HL (up) or LH/LL (down).

2.2 Trend Structure

Trends breathe via consolidation → expansion → consolidation.

Breakouts can:

Go with no retest

Retest the boundary and go

Brief incursion back into box, then full resolve

The first inner zone inside the box is critical: if a new uptrend is valid, the price shouldn’t revisit below it.

Stops: below that first inner zone.

Note: Zone‑to‑Zone shines in non‑trendy markets (FX, many dividend names).

2.3 Types of Boxes

MA roles (fractal):

9 SMA → short‑term momentum

50 SMA → intermediate momentum

21 SMA → the inflection between 9 and 50; often reacts first

2.3.1 Base Box

Both the 9 & 50 SMA flatten for an extended period.

Highest stored energy; breakouts can start major trends.

2.3.2 50 SMA Box

Sideways price, 9 SMA flat, 50 SMA rising/falling into price as dynamic S/R.

Breakout after the 50 SMA reaches the box.

2.3.3 9 SMA Box

Shorter coil (≈ 3–4 candles).

9 SMA catches up; breakout follows.

Shortest consolidation; quicker moves.

2.3.4 9 vs 50 Comparison

9 SMA trend: 2× HH/HL supported by 9. Parabolic (≈20% of cases): each candle’s low should not undercut the prior candle’s low.

9 SMA box: brief sideways until 9 SMA “tags” price → quick reaction.

50 SMA boxes: longer coil; 50 “arrives,” 9 often flat.

Base box: 50 is inside & flat; price crossed above/below multiple times.

2.4 System Objectives Checklist

Trend-following or mean-reversion?

Entry conditions?

Exit logic?

System expectancy?

Risk model?

Entries

Box breakout (bullish): Prefer consolidation at the top‑right of the box before break → higher probability.

Zone‑to‑Zone: Look for a lower‑TF coil at a higher‑TF zone → break of coil for entry.

Profit & Exits

Next zone target; or

Exit when an uptrend fails to make an HL (i.e., breaks prior swing low).

Stops

Box breakout: Below the first inner zone or box low.

Zone‑to‑Zone: Based on the lower‑TF coil used for entry.

Position Size = 4% per trade or less.

2.5 Trading the Boxes

Four box archetypes: 9 SMA, 21 SMA, 50 SMA, and Base.

Base Box

More false starts; longest runs when it goes.

Prefer equity or bull‑put spreads; ride while price > 50 SMA.

50 SMA Box

The first 50‑box after a base is the most reliable.

Daily 50‑box usually follows 3–4 weeks of coil; expect ≈1.5–2 weeks of trend leg.

Tactics: Stock and swing options (expiry ≈ coil length or slightly more).

9 SMA Boxes

Breakout leg ≈2–3 days, then another coil.

Tactics: Scalps with 1–1.5 weeks to expiry; 1–2 OTM strikes.

Quick Summary

Base: most power, least timing precision.

50: first after base = best reliability; second is weaker.

9: short, sharp, tactical.

2.6 Overall Market Environment

If indices trend up above the latest daily zone, 8/10 breakouts can succeed.

If indices chop under the latest daily zone, expect ≈5/10 to work.

Compare QQQ vs. SPY strength to gauge risk‑on/off.

Rules of thumb

Upside bias: Index above the latest daily zone (or proxy 9 SMA if approximating).

Scalping bias: Above the latest hourly zone.

2.7 Box System & Long‑Term Investing (LTI)

Markets are fractal; weekly = daily = hourly in pattern, not speed.

Trend rule: in an uptrend, price should not break prior swing low (mirror for downtrend).

Trailing stop logic

Uptrend: trail to recent swing low once confirmed.

Downtrend: trail to recent swing high.

MA benchmarks:

Hard breaks of 9 SMA → likely consolidation.

50 SMA for longer bias.

Caveat: large‑cap growth rarely trends cleanly down (index dependency & fund flows).

2.8 Watchlist Creation

Three steps

Scan sectors for consolidations (boxes).

Check relative strength vs. SPY (e.g., XLK/SPY).

Review the top 10–20 holdings.

Tiers

A‑List: Box about to break + high options liquidity.

B‑List: Box about to break but low options liquidity.

C‑List: Boxes are still developing.

2.9 Role of the 21 SMA

Acts as the inflection between 9 and 50.

The highest failed‑break probability occurs at 21 boxes.

After a 9‑trend ends, watch 21 for the reaction:

Back to recent highs and breaks, or

Failed break; or

Reject at 9 after 21 reactions.

2.10 SPX Intraday Scalp Pattern

Don’t chase the open; wait 1–2 hours for the market to form an intraday box (2–3 h coil).

Enter as the range breaks: you benefit from direction and rising IV (“double whammy”).

2.11 SQUEEZE Pro Indicator (SQZPRO)

Concept: A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands compress inside the Keltner Channels (BB inside KC) → energy building.

Dot codes (suggested):

Green: No squeeze

Black: Mild squeeze (BB within 2 ATR KC)

Red: Tight squeeze (BB within 1.5 ATR KC)

Yellow: Very tight (best odds for expansion)

Heuristic: The tighter the compression, the stronger the potential release.

2.12 Backtesting & Strategy Creation

Use TradingView Replay. Segment by regime (bull, bear, or chop).

Test entries, exits, and risk variants.

Purpose: build statistical confidence to keep your “monkey brain” from hijacking.

2.13 QQQ vs SPY for Intraday

SPY: S&P 500 (market‑cap weighted, broader economy).

QQQ: NASDAQ‑100 ex‑financials (tech‑heavy, risk‑on).

Scenarios

Bullish clean: QQQ > SPY, and both above hourly 9.

Bearish clean: QQQ < SPY, and both below hourly 9.

Chop, green day: Market up but QQQ < SPY → grindy.

Chop, red day: Market down and SPY < QQQ → grindy.

Read strength: Compare % change vs prior close.

2.14 Gaps: What & Why

Markets aren’t 24/7; exogenous events (earnings, geopolitics) reset expectations → open ≠ prior close.

How to trade gaps

Treat the gap range as support (gap‑up) or resistance (gap‑down); draw a gap box.

Unfilled gaps are potent S/R. Above, a bullish gap favors continuation until filled.

If the gap is huge, rely on historic zones to seed new levels within.

2.15 Scalps vs Swings

Scalps: minutes–hours; TF ≤ 1h.

Swings: days–weeks; TF ≥ 1h (prefer daily baseline).

Drill down one TF for refined entries; manage to the anchor TF.

Expiration (rules of thumb)

Stocks (scalps): Mon/Tue → same‑week; Wed/Thu/Fri → next‑week.

Indices (scalps): 1–2 DTE, 1–2 OTM.

Swings: Expiry ≥ consolidation length (often 1–1.5× coil duration).

2.16 Which Timeframe Should You Trade?

Real Trading Hours, 1-2 HR → Day trading & scalps (≤1h TF).

After Hours, 1–2 hr → Swings (≥1 hr, ideally daily).

Less than 1 HR → Multi‑week swings or LTI (weekly charts).

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