30/4/25 - Can Bears Get a Breakout with FT Selling? FCPO

• Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 29) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
  
• In our previous report, we said traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar. If they do, it could lead to a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low.
  
• The bears got a follow-through bear bar on Tuesday.
  
• They want a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range.
  
• If there is a breakout below the April 22 low, the bears must create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a successful breakout.
  
• The bulls want the current move to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22).
  
• If the market trades below the April 22 low, they want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• As strong as the current selling is, the bulls see it as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
  
• They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support.
  
• They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
  
• The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low. It is currently underway.
  
• Traders will see the strength of the move. If strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. So far, the move appears strong.
  
• The market formed another bear bar in the night market testing near the April 22 low (just 25 points away from the low).
  
• For tomorrow (30/4/25), traders will see if the bears can create a retest and breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If there is a breakout, traders will see if there will be strong follow-through selling.
  
• Or will Wednesday's candlestick close with a long tail below instead? If this is the case, it will indicate some profit-taking around the trading range low (3850 area).
  
• The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range.
  
• That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
  
• Breakout from trading ranges can fail and odds slightly favor the trading range to continue.
  

Andrew