24/7/25 Buying Pressure Is Slightly Stronger

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 22) was a bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying and test near the July 18 high, or if the market would form a breakout below the triangle and ii (inside-inside) pattern instead.
   
3. The market formed a breakout of the triangle to retest the July 18 high.
   
4. Previously, the bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 18).
   
5. They want a retest of the April high.
   
6. The bulls need to create a strong breakout above the July 18 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 18) and a trend channel line overshoot. They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
8. They view the current move as a retest of the prior high, and want it to form a lower high or double top with July 18.
   
9. The problem with the bear's case is that they have not been able to create follow-through selling in the last four selloffs (July 7, July 11, July 15, and Jul 22). The bears are not as strong as they hoped for.
   
10. They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are at least temporarily back in control. Currently, they haven't been able to do so.
    
11. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher. August may be flat or slightly lower.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
13. Export: Down 3% in the first 20 days.
    
14. So far, the buying pressure is slightly stronger than the selling pressure. The bulls have a slight edge in buying pressure, but not in an overwhelming way yet (no strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs).
    
15. For now, I reckon odds slightly favor sideways to up.
    
16. For tomorrow (Thursday, July 24), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, breaking above the July 18 high.
    
17. Or will the market stall around or below the July 18 high area and trade lower instead?
    

Andrew