9/10/25 Bulls Need Strong BO Above Sept 17 High

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Oct 8) was a big bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls can create more follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade higher but stall below the September 17 high instead.
   
3. The market traded higher to test the September 17 high but closed slightly below it.
   
4. The bulls view the recent move (Sep 23) as a deeper two-legged pullback and want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 29 and Sep 23) and a large double bottom bull flag (Aug 4 and Sep 23).
   
5. They want the pullback to lack follow-through selling, forming a higher low. So far, this is the case.
   
6. They want a retest of the August high, even if it only forms a lower high. The move is underway.
   
7. They must create a strong breakout above the September 17 high to increase the odds of testing the August high.
   
8. The bears got a deep pullback and a breakout below the tight trading range (Sep 23), but the move lacked sustained follow-through selling.
   
9. They see the current move as a pullback and want the September 17 high to act as resistance.
   
10. They want a reversal from a large double top bear flag (Sept 17 and Oct 8), and a lower high major trend reversal.
    
11. They need to create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
    
12. Production for Oct should be down. SPPOMA's first 5 days increased up 12%.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: Oct down in the first 5 days.
    
15. For today (Thursday, Oct 9), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying above the September 17 high.
    
16. Or will the market stall around the September 17 high instead?
    

Andrew