7/10/25 Bulls Still Need FT Buying Above 20-day EMA

1. Monday’s candlestick (Oct 6) had a small bear body closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create more follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would stall and reverse below the 20-day EMA instead.
   
3. The market traded lower below the 20-day EMA but reversed to close above it.
   
4. The bulls view the recent move (Sep 23) as a deeper two-legged pullback and want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 29 and Sep 23) and a large double bottom bull flag (Aug 4 and Sep 23).
   
5. They view the recent move (Sept 30) as a retest of the prior low (Sept 23), and want the pullback to lack follow-through selling, forming a higher low. So far, this is the case.
   
6. They want a retest of the August high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
7. They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
8. The bears got a deep pullback and a breakout below the tight trading range (Sep 23), but the move lacked sustained follow-through selling.
   
9. They see the current move as a pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
   
10. They want a reversal from a large double top bear flag (Sept 17 and Oct 3), followed by another sideways to down leg to complete the wedge pattern.
    
11. They need to create strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
12. Production for Oct should be down. SPPOMA's first 5 days increased up 12%.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: Oct down in the first 5 days.
    
15. For today (Tuesday, Oct 7), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA.
    
16. Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA area and reverse below it instead?
    

Andrew