16/6/25 Bulls Need Strong Follow-through Buying on Monday

1. Friday’s candlestick (Jun 13) was a bull bar closing near its high and above the 20-day EMA.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create another follow-through bear bar, or if the market stalls again and form a bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead.
   
3. The market stalled again and formed a bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3). They see another smaller wedge bear flag (May 29, Jun 3, and Jun 9).
   
5. The problem with the bear's case is that the follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA has been limited. The bears are not yet strong.
   
6. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and Jun 11).
   
8. They want the market to reverse above the 20-day EMA. So far, the market has done so.
   
9. They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
10. The 4030 area could also be an area of resistance (weekly 20-day EMA).
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level. It could be slightly lower even. Sppoma's first 10 days are down -16%, but could be due to the Hari Raya Haji holiday.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Looks strong in the first 10 days +25-30%
    
14. For tomorrow (Monday, Jun 16), the market will likely open higher. Traders will see if the bulls can close the day as a bull bar above the 4000 level.
    
15. Or will the open higher, but lack follow-through buying, closing the day with a bear body with a long tail above? If this is the case, it will indicate the bulls are not yet strong.
    

Andrew