FCPO 22 April 2025 - Breakout With Follow-through Selling

• Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low.
  
• In our previous report, we said the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower. Traders would to see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they do, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area.
  
• The bears got a follow-through bear bar and the night session also traded lower and has tested near the 3860 area.
  
• The bears want a retest of the January low. They got what they wanted.
  
• They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
  
• They hope to get a strong breakout below the January low area to test the 3800 area.
  
• The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 21) and a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create strong bull bars with follow-through buying.
  
• They see the current move as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
  
• If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the 3850 area.
  
• They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
  
• Exports for the first 20 days are up ITS: 11.89%, AmSpec: 18.5%.
  
• Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
  
• Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
  
• The market remains Always In Short.
  
• So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
  
• The breakout below the April 16 low is strong with follow-through selling.
  
• Traders want to see if the bears can create a strong retest of the 3850-3800 area and close tomorrow as a strong bear bar near its low.
  
• Or will the candlestick close with a long tail below and above the middle of its range instead?
  
• If there is a climactic spike down, traders will see if there will be profit-taking activity after that (over the next several days).
  
• For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.
  
• Traders will see if the 3800-50 area can act as support or if the market will break down below with strength.