30/7/25 Weak Selling Pressure So Far

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jul 29) was a bull doji bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we stated traders would see if the bears could create follow-through selling, or if the pullback phase would be weak and sideways, holding above or around the 20-day EMA instead.
   
3. The market opened lower but traded sideways to up for the rest of the day, holding above the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls want a retest of the April high.
   
5. They want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). They want the 20-day EMA to act as support. So far, this appears to be the case.
   
6. If there is a deeper pullback lasting more than a week, they want it to be shallow (overlapping candlesticks, bull bars and long tails below candlesticks).
   
7. They want another strong leg up to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jun 20 and July 24.
   
8. The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 24) and an embedded wedge (Jul 14, Jul 18, and Jul 24). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
9. Previously, the bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
   
10. They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
    
11. If the market trades higher, they want it to stall around the July 24 high area, forming a double top.
    
12. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher. August may be flat or down.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
14. Export: Down 10% in the first 25 days.
    
15. So far, the buying pressure is slightly stronger than the selling pressure, but not in an overwhelming way yet (no strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs).
    
16. However, the move up has lasted a long time. The market may have to form a pullback before it moves higher again. The pullback phase is underway.
    
17. Traders will assess the strength of the pullback to determine whether it will be a minor correction or something more significant.
    
18. So far, the pullback appears to be minor.
    
19. The bears need to create follow-through selling to show they are back in control, something they couldn't do in the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and Jul 22).
    
20. For tomorrow (Wednesday, July 30), traders will see if the bulls can create a retest of the July 24 high and a breakout above.
    
21. Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around or below the July 24 high, forming bear bars instead?
    

Andrew