2/9/25 Can Bears Create FT Selling, or Bear Trap?

1. Friday’s candlestick (Aug 29) was a bear bar closing near its low.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bears could create strong follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would find support at the 20-day EMA and close higher for the day instead.
   
3. The bears got follow-through selling, closing below the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support, and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4).
   
5. They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 low).
   
6. They hope Friday's candlestick will become a bear trap.
   
7. They want a retest and a breakout above the August high.
   
8. They need to create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
9. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
   
10. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
    
11. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top.
    
12. Production for Sept should be flat or down.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: August export up 10%.
    
15. The sideways to down pullback phase is still underway.
    
16. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling. Or will the market reverse sharply, creating a bear trap?
    
17. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept 2), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
    
18. Or will the market reverse above the 20-day EMA instead?
    

Andrew