30/5/25 Can Bulls Form a Retest of May 29 High? Or Down?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (29 May) was a bull bar closing above the middle of its range with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would reverse below the 20-day EMA again, like the previous two times (May 15 and May 21).
   
3. The bulls created a follow-through bull bar above the 20-day EMA, something they could not do in the last 2 times (May 15 and May 21).
   
4. The candlestick has a long tail above which indicates the bulls are not yet as strong as they hope for.
   
5. They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 26).
   
6. They see the current move as a pullback and want a retest of the May 29 high tomorrow, even if it forms a lower high.
   
7. They need to create a breakout above 4000 with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a reversal.
   
8. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA or the May 26 low to act as support, forming a higher low and a wedge bull flag (with the first two legs being the May 16 and May 26 lows).
   
9. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and May 29).
   
10. They want the move to lack follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA like the last 2 times (May 15 and May 21). They want the market to reverse below the 20-day EMA tomorrow.
    
11. If the market trades higher, they want the 3950 - 4000 levels as the resistance area. So far, this is the case.
    
12. Exports for the first 25 days seem good, +7%
    
13. Production is up marginally so far. June's production should be more or less around May's level.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
    
15. For tomorrow (Friday, May 30), traders will see if the bulls can create a retest of the May 29 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
    
16. Or will the market reverse below the 20-day EMA again, like the previous two times (May 15 and May 21)? If so, especially if it is strong, we may get a retest of the May 26 low in the coming days.
    

Andrew