3/6/25 - Can Bears Create a Strong FT Bear Bar or Not?

1. Friday’s candlestick (May 30) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a retest of the May 29 high, even if it only forms a lower high, or if the market would reverse below the 20-day EMA again, like the previous two times (May 15 and May 21). If so, especially if it is strong, we may get a retest of the May 26 low in the coming days.
   
3. The market formed a bear bar trading below the 20-day EMA but the prominent tail below indicates some hesitation from the bears.
   
4. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 26) and a wedge bear flag (May 16, May 26, and May 30).
   
5. They want the 20-day EMA or the May 26 low to act as support, forming a higher low and a wedge bull flag (with the first two legs being the May 16 and May 26 lows).
   
6. They must create strong bull bars trading above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and May 29).
   
8. They must create follow-through selling trading below the May 26 low to increase the odds of another strong leg down.
   
9. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
   
10. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
    
11. For tomorrow (Tuesday, June 3), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar.
    
12. Or will the market trade slightly lower, but close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead?
    

Andrew