FCPO / Crude Palm Oil CPO 18 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis

• Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a long tail below.
  
• In our previous report, we said the bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area.
  
• The market traded above the prior day's high (16 April) but the follow-through buying was limited. The market then reversed to close near its low.
  
• Currently, in the night session, the market gapped up and is an inside bull bar with a prominent tail above.
  
• The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• While the market traded higher today (April 17), the bulls couldn't create sustained follow-through buying.
  
• They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high.
  
• They hope tomorrow (Friday) will close as a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick will have a long tail below and close above the middle of its range.
  
• The bears want a retest of the January low.
  
• They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
  
• They see the current move forming a double top bear flag (April 15 and April 17).
  
• They want a strong retest of the April 16 low, followed by a strong breakout below.
  
• They want a big bear bar closing near its low tomorrow (Friday) so that the weekly candlestick will be a strong bear bar. If this is the case, the odds of the market trading at least a little lower the following week will increase.
  
• Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%.
  
• Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
  
• Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
  
• The market remains Always In Short.
  
• The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold.
  
• However, the bulls attempted to create reversals in the last 2 days but both times had limited follow-through buying, with the market reversing to close lower. The bulls are not yet strong.
  
• The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9).
  

• The market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode.
  
• Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout.
  
• Until then, traders may continue to Buy Low and Sell High (between 4000 and 4080).
  
• The U.S. market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
  
• For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar breaking below the April 16 low.
  
• Or will the market trade sideways followed by a retest and breakout above the 4080 level instead?