9/6/5 20-Day EMA Holding as Support So Far

1. Friday’s candlestick (Jun 6) was a doji bar closing slightly above the middle of its range.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar closing below the 20-day EMA, or if the bulls could create a bull bar reversing higher instead like June 3.
   
3. The market opened higher during the day's session but reversed below the June 5 low and the 20-day EMA. However, the follow-through selling was limited and the market reversed to close unchanged.
   
4. The bears could not create a follow-through bear bar below the 20-day EMA.
   
5. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3).
   
6. The doji bar on Friday disappointed the bears as they could not create strong follow-through selling closing below the 20-day EMA.
   
7. They must create strong bear bars trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of another strong leg down.
   
8. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and May 30). They see the market creating a double bottom bull flag (May 30 and Jun 6).
   
9. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support, forming higher lows. So far, this is still the case (May 30 and Jun 6).
   
10. They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
    
11. The 4030 area could also be an area of resistance (weekly 20-day EMA).
    
12. They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA and breaking above the May 14 high to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
13. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
15. Export: Remain to be seen.
    
16. For tomorrow (Monday, June 9), traders will see if the bulls can create a bull entry bar testing near the Jun 3 high area.
    
17. Or will the bears get another attempt to close below the 20-day EMA?
    
18. The market is about balanced for the bulls and bears, and neither side has a significant edge yet.
    

Andrew