Breakout Strategy

21 mag 2024

I look for consolidation at areas of support and resistance, then wait for price action that represents a strong breakout. It's important to understand the difference between a breakout move and what I call an exhaustion move, which I define a candle that is substantially longer than the previous candles at the top or bottom of a trend. This type of price action usually leads to profit taking. I define a breakout as a move through several areas of support or resistance such as moving averages and pivot areas. Patience is key because statistically, Reversals or Breakouts have an 80% failure rate, so it's important to understand how to differentiate between a failed breakout or reversal and a legitimate breakout or reversal.

21 mag 2024

Nota

There are several reversal attempts between May 6 and the current reversal. Knowing that statistically 80% of breakouts and reversals fail. Note the exhaustion candle on May 3rd, which indicates the trend may be coming to an end, so how do we know the first attempt at reversing on May 6th wasn't legit? First of all it did not penetrate through multiple areas of resistance that I defined above. The candle barely broke the 180 EMA and the following candle showed no strength. Each attempt at reversing failed during the area of consolidation. 5/7 went through MA's but didn't break the defined area of resistance. Note also the pullback went below the initial failed 5/6 breakout attempt. May 9th breakout showed decent signs initially by breaking through and closing above MA's, however, failed to penetrate through resistance and again the pullback made it all the way back to the area of support that was established on May 6th. May 15th attempt also showed decent signs of reversing, and even though it didn't break the area of resistance, for all intents and purposes, this is the start of the true reversal imo. because the pullback established a higher low pivot area on May 20th, with a strong move breaking the area of resistance.