GBP/NZD Possibly Breaking Strong Resistance

24 lug 2023

The GBP/NZD pair has been on uptrend and touching resistance levels 4 times around the 2.080 level. Each time, it comes back to the upward trend-line and gets bid higher. There're high probabilities than it could break above this level soon.


Weekly Chart showing the Long-term Support and Resistance areas.


In addition, the pair has a tail-wind fundamentally.
Shown are the Inflation Y/Y and Core Inflation Y/Y readings for both currencies.

Overall, Inflation levels are heading lower faster for NZD.



Next, are the Interest Rate differentials between both economies. On a percentage basis which measures the velocity of the change, the trend is in favor of the GBP by a lot vs. the NZD although in nominal terms, the NZD still has a higher Interest Rate level as shown on the last image.
In other words, the New Zealand is likely to pause or lower Interest Rates sooner than the the UK leading to an appreciation in the GBP/NZD Pair.

These is only a few of the many Economic Indicators we can use to predict currency moves. Many others require some statistical analysis to have clearer conclusions which can't really be shown on this platform.

Net-net, a Long - Currency Bias fundamentally on the medium term (1 - 3 month) period.

Interest Rate differential Percentage change:
I

Interest Rate differential in nominal terms: