Someone noticed the other day (User "salvanost") the fact that gold is making 5 bear MONTHLY candles in a row.
So I wanted to know how strange that event is, and I checked and did some numbers and observations:
1) I just counted 5 TIMES in the pass that gold made 5 candles or more (6 is the max I found). Never found 7 candles in a row.
2) So we are at the door (three trading days to close the month) to the 6th time we find 5 or more monthly candles red in a row.
3) In 4 of those five times, there was a rally afterwards (or almosts afterwards). Only in 1996 gold continued falling.
4) Now some maths...(with the permission of truly mathematicians, which I am not)
- There are right now 571 monthly candles since the start of the chart.
- We can make 566 groups of six consecutive candles, then.
- We have found this event in 6 times (counting the current one)...so probability says: 6/566 = 1% is the probability of this to happen.
- And 7 has never happen which doesn't mean it can't. In fact, as times goes on, probability says that event rises its probabitity to happen.
- If next candle is red (September), betting a green one (7th) is statistically a winner bet. October "should" be white.
We could be in a similiar pattern as 2018 with gold moving in a range that could be bottoming..and gold ready to move up.
or
We could be in a similar pattern as 1996 with gold ready to move down.
And according to history... 0,20% (1/5 x 1%) of the output was a bearish continuation.
So what could we expect: light or darkness? Green or Red Candles?
Nadadora
Luz Oscuridad luz
Deshazte de mi.
youtube.com/watch?v=_LHAn0QS8FM
Mi position at the moment is long in miners. So I expect a rally in short. That is what "maths" are telling me.
But, until chart says something different, main monthly trend is bear for me.
So I wanted to know how strange that event is, and I checked and did some numbers and observations:
1) I just counted 5 TIMES in the pass that gold made 5 candles or more (6 is the max I found). Never found 7 candles in a row.
2) So we are at the door (three trading days to close the month) to the 6th time we find 5 or more monthly candles red in a row.
3) In 4 of those five times, there was a rally afterwards (or almosts afterwards). Only in 1996 gold continued falling.
4) Now some maths...(with the permission of truly mathematicians, which I am not)
- There are right now 571 monthly candles since the start of the chart.
- We can make 566 groups of six consecutive candles, then.
- We have found this event in 6 times (counting the current one)...so probability says: 6/566 = 1% is the probability of this to happen.
- And 7 has never happen which doesn't mean it can't. In fact, as times goes on, probability says that event rises its probabitity to happen.
- If next candle is red (September), betting a green one (7th) is statistically a winner bet. October "should" be white.
We could be in a similiar pattern as 2018 with gold moving in a range that could be bottoming..and gold ready to move up.
or
We could be in a similar pattern as 1996 with gold ready to move down.
And according to history... 0,20% (1/5 x 1%) of the output was a bearish continuation.
So what could we expect: light or darkness? Green or Red Candles?
Nadadora
Luz Oscuridad luz
Deshazte de mi.
youtube.com/watch?v=_LHAn0QS8FM
Mi position at the moment is long in miners. So I expect a rally in short. That is what "maths" are telling me.
But, until chart says something different, main monthly trend is bear for me.
Nota
Nota
Missed one important: the top of 2012, with a similar situation as current one, that preceded a serious fall. So odds are 4 times rally, and 2 times fall. A believe we are close to that 2012 than to a upwards continuation.
Nota
But....The bullish case is there in gold noves (as i expect) to the 1860$ and holds there monthly....Then, new all time hights
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.