Is Glencore in a cyclical trend?
I love this chart from an educational perspective. Markets move in cycles. Some sectors tend to be more cyclical than others and the resource sector definitely fits into that categorization and we can see that in the chart.
So from a fundamental perspective, can one assume that Glencore has started a new cyclical trend? A great South African manager that i highly respect put out a note on their exposure to Glencore and relative underweight positions in other diversified miners such as BHP and Anglo. From a fundamental perspective, Glencore mines commodities such as copper, nickel and zinc, all of which have fundamental reasons why the demand in these commodities should increase over time. Copper looks a bit pricey at the moment, perhaps in need of a health pull back but over time it should increase in price.
The signals suggest that the price of Glencore should rise over the short-term, however, i think it may then undergo a healthy pullback before its next leg upwards.
So what is one to make of all of this? Well either buy in now and hold for the next 2-3 years or until the fundamentals change, perhaps taking profits at certain points on the way up, or wait for the pull back (if it occurs) and then buy in. In other words, buy in and hold or sit on your hands and wait.
Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader.
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
So from a fundamental perspective, can one assume that Glencore has started a new cyclical trend? A great South African manager that i highly respect put out a note on their exposure to Glencore and relative underweight positions in other diversified miners such as BHP and Anglo. From a fundamental perspective, Glencore mines commodities such as copper, nickel and zinc, all of which have fundamental reasons why the demand in these commodities should increase over time. Copper looks a bit pricey at the moment, perhaps in need of a health pull back but over time it should increase in price.
The signals suggest that the price of Glencore should rise over the short-term, however, i think it may then undergo a healthy pullback before its next leg upwards.
So what is one to make of all of this? Well either buy in now and hold for the next 2-3 years or until the fundamentals change, perhaps taking profits at certain points on the way up, or wait for the pull back (if it occurs) and then buy in. In other words, buy in and hold or sit on your hands and wait.
Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader.
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
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