Gold analysis

31 mag

What a year it has been with the main scenario turning around inflation and interest rate cut expectations across the world; To that, we can add the multiple conflicts around the world effecting trade and business. With that being said and with the 2nd quarter coming to an end in the next 30 days, The big picture is taking form and I believe we will soon have some great buying opportunities in Gold. Fundamentally, I am biased on a no interest rate cut this year 2024 therefore we will observe a stronger dollar. This will present good prices to get into gold and by that time in 2025 we will potentially already have some cuts which will support a gold move higher after locking in some long entries.

On a technical basis, I've been following the price action and it has been moving accordingly to all the levels identified. Therefore, I am continuing to follow the price to lock in some longs.

8 giu

Nota

Good catalyst with NFP shaping Interest rate expectations and boosting US10Y. This aligns so far with a weaker gold which will present us with some good entries long. But don't get it twisted, Gold's long term trend is still up. The idea of this analysis is to get good Long entries in the coming months.

13 giu

Nota

Following the FOMC meeting and CPI events yesterday we have a FED that sounded quite hawkish and that conforts me in our view of a stronger dollar through out the rest of a year therefore a slightly weaker gold that will present us with great long entries. If we hear out the FED and how data has printed over the last 5 months, cuts look like they might start at the end of this year or next year and it's around that time that gold will be a pretty nice buy. If that lines up with the chart and continues to play out, we might be on to some good opportunities. Keep watch for all catalysts.