ARE LBMA RUMORS A SHAM? WE WILL KNOW AT 2765.

3 giorni fa

In last notes I wrote that yellow route would mean prices move for 2975+, on its way to 3333 and ultimately 4900-5000. The short term momentum is implying top is in, and while this is not final, I just cannot make that route make sense in the long term picture. So I see only two routes forward that makes sense, and I think it's BLUE ROUTE.

3 giorni fa

Nota

3 giorni fa

Nota

1) to disprove yellow route, price must move under 2790, preferably at least 2775
2) the topping pattern favors 2765
3) to disprove black route, price must move under 2765 meaningfully
4) to at least 2725, but my call is 2705-2715

3 giorni fa

Nota

5) THIS WOULD BE STRONG BUY FOR 3100

3 giorni fa

Nota

6) BUT WOULD ALSO MEAN 2450-2550 AFTER THAT

3 giorni fa

Nota

7:28 AM ET, 2/7, so an hour before NFP and...

7) overnight price broke resistance which...
8) sets up a one more high situation that looks like 2896.5
9) on Wed I says that we could not entertain ...
10) a check down route unless we hit 2835 AND WE DID BUT LATE
11) so with this break of resistance ...
12) the 8 min bar chart shows two things worth saying
A) first response is continuation of yellow route with break of 2888
B) second response is a close under 2865 which means nothing
13) why?
14) because yellow route now obviously favored unless
15) WE CLOSE UNDER 2835
16) this is a big ask that is not realistic until Monday

l’altro ieri

Nota

17) 1:26 PM 2863.xx after today's SECOND visit to 2853...
18) made new high but stop short of 2890
19) this double top now obvious and the pattern ...
20) now much more bearish than before
21) it's still hard to close under 2835
22) but a close under 2835 would seal the deal
23) realistic by Monday close has now become favored
24) by Monday close

l’altro ieri

Nota

25) immediately followed by dropped to 2765
26) nothing more worth adding for mow

l’altro ieri

Nota

** for now, typo

l’altro ieri

Nota

27) except demand and schedule for 2710

l’altro ieri

Nota

28) to hit 2710... price must be on time for the following targets similar to chart above

l’altro ieri

Nota

29) 2810 on Monday
30) 2855 or less on Wednesday but preferably 2735
31) if 2735 gets hit by Thursday it doesn't matter if price rebound to 2790 or not
32) odds would favor one more low

l’altro ieri

Nota

8:02 PM, today played out pretty much as expected....

32) so I have every reason to expect 2765 and less by Thursday NY close...
33) that's 100 down from 2860 close

l’altro ieri

Nota

34) and we will go on from there

l’altro ieri

Nota

35) typo on 30) 2755 or less... (not 2855 or less)