#GOLD intermediate wave-(3) rally completed in May-2023 at 2081; the metal has been unfolding a corrective intermediate wave-(4) phase and this should be completed by november-2024, the rally from oct-2023 low 1810 is sucker B-wave rally completed at 2146. from now till nov-2024 gold is pretty much unfolding intermediate wave -4 below $1660 sep-2022 low toward $1644/$1528/$1421 in a n impulsive 5 waves pattern (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) to complete the A-B-C corrective waves.
$1421 is the Fibonacci 0.618% retracement target, rule of alternate suggest a simple intermediate wave-(2) to alternate with a complex wave-(4). since wave -2 retraced 75% of intermediate wave-1, the rule of alternate suggest the complex wave- 4 should not be more than 75% of intermediate wave-(3) but a minimum target of 38.2% at $1665.
However to maintain the longer term bullish structure this intermediate wave-(4) correction MUST NOT go below the peak of intermediate wave-(1) at $1375 on jul-11-2016. Breach below $1375, mean the bullish case will have to be placed on hold for a much deeper correction lower, if this rule of Elliott violated then $2146 dec-2023 high is the intermediate wave -(5) peak. this will change the whole structure for gold. potentially a very destructive event risk have taken center stage that weigh on risk asset.
CRITICAL: multi years up trend line (GREEN TREND LINE) support now extended to $1860, it bounced sharply the last two times it touches it sept-2022 at $1661 and oct-2-2023 at $1826, get the hell out of gold if it close below $1860 for 3 consecutive days.
CONCLUSION: GOLD REMAIN STRUCTURALLY BULLISH AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE $1860 AND THIS CORRECTIVE DOWN WHEN UNFOLD IT MUST NOT GO BELOW $1375; BELOW LATTER $923 IS THE RETRACEMENT TARGET
BIAS: SELL RALLY (SPOT REF $2040), STOP LOSS $2159 TARGET $1421 (1:5 RISK REWARD)
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAVE A SAFE PROSPEROUS HOLIDAY
$1421 is the Fibonacci 0.618% retracement target, rule of alternate suggest a simple intermediate wave-(2) to alternate with a complex wave-(4). since wave -2 retraced 75% of intermediate wave-1, the rule of alternate suggest the complex wave- 4 should not be more than 75% of intermediate wave-(3) but a minimum target of 38.2% at $1665.
However to maintain the longer term bullish structure this intermediate wave-(4) correction MUST NOT go below the peak of intermediate wave-(1) at $1375 on jul-11-2016. Breach below $1375, mean the bullish case will have to be placed on hold for a much deeper correction lower, if this rule of Elliott violated then $2146 dec-2023 high is the intermediate wave -(5) peak. this will change the whole structure for gold. potentially a very destructive event risk have taken center stage that weigh on risk asset.
CRITICAL: multi years up trend line (GREEN TREND LINE) support now extended to $1860, it bounced sharply the last two times it touches it sept-2022 at $1661 and oct-2-2023 at $1826, get the hell out of gold if it close below $1860 for 3 consecutive days.
CONCLUSION: GOLD REMAIN STRUCTURALLY BULLISH AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE $1860 AND THIS CORRECTIVE DOWN WHEN UNFOLD IT MUST NOT GO BELOW $1375; BELOW LATTER $923 IS THE RETRACEMENT TARGET
BIAS: SELL RALLY (SPOT REF $2040), STOP LOSS $2159 TARGET $1421 (1:5 RISK REWARD)
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAVE A SAFE PROSPEROUS HOLIDAY