5/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
GOOGL
Adding it back today at $150
- i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse.
- aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay.
- in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two things 1/ i am spending more time in search, so the pie is growing and that still includes the same amt of time/ searches in google and 2/ google's search has gotten much better w/ the gemini response
- will it be harder to monetize ads? probably yes.
- is the lazy google culture going to be mostly replaced by AI? also yes (hurray!) and nobody seems to want to underwrite this
- so as long as their general digital businesses (must consider maps, email, cloud... many others incl. ai effors, waymo, i could go on) remain not falling apart at the seams, i'd believe their size/ capex budget still puts google as a leading AI-software winner from today
- add to this that most of the biz is digital e.g. no tariff exposed (yes the ads they serve are affected so i get it)
- also no real "china" exposure like say aapl/ nvda etc.
- so ultimately, does it go lower? V says "idk and idc" it's one of these businesses that post last results still delivered. generates cash. valuation reasonable as i mention above (we can get into this in another note later or in the comments)
- but days like today and it's mostly deleveraging. no real money LO is selling this thing in size, the opposite
- so i'm a buyer. necking out w/ some bi weekly calls for notional which allows me to get the "fed" reaction wrong and also benefit from a move higher.
- stock is a buy here
- and thanks aapl. keep talkin'
V
GOOGLAdding it back today at $150
- i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse.
- aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay.
- in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two things 1/ i am spending more time in search, so the pie is growing and that still includes the same amt of time/ searches in google and 2/ google's search has gotten much better w/ the gemini response
- will it be harder to monetize ads? probably yes.
- is the lazy google culture going to be mostly replaced by AI? also yes (hurray!) and nobody seems to want to underwrite this
- so as long as their general digital businesses (must consider maps, email, cloud... many others incl. ai effors, waymo, i could go on) remain not falling apart at the seams, i'd believe their size/ capex budget still puts google as a leading AI-software winner from today
- add to this that most of the biz is digital e.g. no tariff exposed (yes the ads they serve are affected so i get it)
- also no real "china" exposure like say aapl/ nvda etc.
- so ultimately, does it go lower? V says "idk and idc" it's one of these businesses that post last results still delivered. generates cash. valuation reasonable as i mention above (we can get into this in another note later or in the comments)
- but days like today and it's mostly deleveraging. no real money LO is selling this thing in size, the opposite
- so i'm a buyer. necking out w/ some bi weekly calls for notional which allows me to get the "fed" reaction wrong and also benefit from a move higher.
- stock is a buy here
- and thanks aapl. keep talkin'
V
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.