HLI: Four Boxes, One Truth

Every chart tells a story, but sometimes... you need boxes to make sense of the chaos. Here's how the price action of HLI unfolded through four carefully framed boxes, each revealing a new chapter of this market narrative.

Box 1: The Fall Begins [5 Waves]
The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook.

• Every wave fits: clean subdivisions, sharp acceleration in wave 3, and a modest wave 4.
  
• This structure confirms one thing: this was no correction — it was the beginning of something bigger.

I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W?

Box 2: The Deceptive Pause [3 Waves]
Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93.

• Classic fakeout setup — just enough strength to draw in bulls, but not enough to erase the previous drop.
  
• The form and proportion suggest it was just a connector, not a trend changer.
  

I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot.

Box 3: The Deep Cut [5 Waves Again]
Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99.

• This leg confirms the pattern: it mirrors Box 1, creating the signature 5-3-5 of a zig-zag — or the W-Y of a complex correction.
  

Final labeling:

• If Box 1 was Wave A, this was Wave C — and together they form a Zig-Zag.
  
• If Box 1 was Wave W, this became Wave Y, closing a potential WXY correction.
  

A clear bearish tale. Or was it?

Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds [Impulsive or X2?]
The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard.

• Structurally, it’s looking like a clear 5-wave impulse, with sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v all marked and playing out.
  
• But wait — if this is just another corrective X wave, it's way too aggressive… isn't it?
  

Here’s the plot twist:

If price gets rejected below $191.99, this might be Wave X2 in a massive WXYXZ correction.
But if it extends beyond 192 and pushes toward $200, then forget the correction — this rally is likely a new trend, and Wave Z may never arrive.

Key Invalidation Levels

• $191.99: The upper limit for X2 — breach it, and the entire corrective scenario collapses.
  
• $161.00: The lower guardrail for the impulse — drop below this, and the impulsive interpretation gets voided.
  

Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely)

• MACD: Momentum slowing.
  
• RSI: Hovering near 50. Neutral, but bears need a breakdown.
  

Closing Thoughts
Four boxes.
Three corrective legs.
Two competing counts.
One impending breakout — or breakdown.

The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t.

So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter.

Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series