LTCUSD: Less Structural Progress Is A Sign Of Weakness?

17 apr 2018

LTCUSD update: This market rallied off the double bottom along with the BTC squeeze, but is not holding up well compared to the other major coins. While BTC took out some key resistance levels during the dramatic bullish move, this market has not. This relative weakness may be a problem if the next BTC retrace returns to proportionate support levels.

I do not get into why LTC is lagging in terms of fundamentals (that's Andrew's specialty), all I know is price is lagging which can be a reflection of internal problems that will eventually surface in the fundamental research. What stands out is that fact that price could not break the 134 resistance level (.382 of recent bearish structure). Until it does, it is more reasonable to anticipate a retest of the 109 low or 102 extreme support boundary if BTC experiences a proportional retrace which could be 1K points.

The one minor bullish sign that this market is presenting is the newly established trend line which can also act as a support level as this market settles. IF price retraces to the 118 level which is a reversal zone boundary relative to the 137 recent low, that is an attractive area to anticipate bullish reversal formations.

Since this market is slow to break the required resistance levels to prove its strength, I would either be extremely conservative if a buy signal appears, or avoid this market all together and trade something with clearer structure. In the bigger picture this market is still poised to go higher, its just that the short term structure is not impressive in comparison to the other major coins.

In summary, if you are a long term holder, there is no reason to make any adjustments yet. I just would not aggressively add until the price structure starts to show clearer signs of strength. Maybe this market will play catch up for whatever reason. There is no simple explanation for why this market is lagging, but as a price action trader, I am not concerned with why. It either fits my criteria for a swing trade, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, there are plenty of other markets to discover new opportunities in. This is why we cover a wide range of markets on S.C., not just the coins.

Questions and comments welcome.

18 apr 2018

Nota

LTCUSD Update: 134 resistance is compromised and price is now maintaining the break which are bullish signs. This is a clearer sign of strength and allows for the next step of the trade process to take place: waiting for the setup. This means price needs to retrace into a predetermined support area and produce a bullish reversal pattern before we enter a swing trade long. One reasonable area to anticipate is the low 120 range which is near a bullish trend line support. Keep in mind, buying on the current breakout attempt still carries a higher risk since the 142 reversal zone boundary is just above. If price is going to fail, this is the most likely area for that to occur. For this reason, reward/risk for a swing trade long is unattractive at the moment. Check out S.C. for further updates.