LTC/USD: Hindsight and Foresight

9 ott 2018

Disclaimer and background: This is not financial advice, and I have never received training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby. This is my first published idea. I am unsure whether I'll further publish ideas as trolling remains my primary pastime, which I've been slacking on. Follow me on Twitter @Teklologist.

Edited for grammar and formatting.

Foreword
I went Long with LTCUSD at $58 (dollar-cost-averaged) with ~18k for approx 310 LTC. I am considering buying another 5k - 10k worth if and when LTC closes above $61 on the 4H. The breakdown of BTCUSD is similar to what I've done here with LTC. Take a look for yourself, easy to see... in hindsight. Comments welcomed.

Hindsight TA
Uptrend wave 1-2-3-4-5 lengths (approximations):

• W1 = 77
  
• W2 = 62 (.81 x W1)
  
• W3 = 330 (4.25 x W1)
  
• W4 = 185 (.50 x W3)
  
• W5 = 122 (1.6 x W1)
  

Downtrend wave A-B-C lengths (approximations):

• WA = 200
  
• WB = 150 (.764 x WA)
  
• WC = 200 (1 x WA)
  

Foresight
The capital for the below target prices would originate from sell-offs of the DJI, IXIC, and SPX index funds. Extrapolation of our Hindsight TA yields:

• W1 = $275 - $290
  
• W2 = $43 - $46
  
• W3 = $412 - $439
  
• W4 = $227 - $242
  
• W5 = $455 - $485
  

9 ott 2018

Nota

Apologies (again). Above Foresight targets are incorrect because of a miscalculation with W2 (forgot to add bottom of new cycle, i.e., $47). Below are the corrected targets.

W1 = $275 - $290
W2 = $90 - $93
W3 = $457 - $484
W4 = $343 - $362
W5 = $571 - $605

10 ott 2018

Nota

Recently published idea with wave count analysis that corroborates this idea's validity.

11 ott 2018

Nota

I leveraged ~33 LTC for ~25K of VIBE at .00035 ETH/VIBE.

TP 1: .00042
TP 2: .00045
TP 3: .0005 (sell all)
Consider buying back if breaks and confirms above .0005. Uncertain timeframe, possibly within a day but more likely 3 - 6 days.

12 ott 2018

Nota

Bought plenty more LTC @ $50.9. I've re-assessed BTCUSD and find it likely to drop once more between $5,000 - $4,800. However, applying same analysis to LTCUSD yields a $50 bottom, which we reached.

13 ott 2018

Nota

For those following, updated BTCUSD assessment could affect LTCUSD. First chart - original BTCUSD chart improved for readability. Second chart - 24 June $5755 BTC bottom scenario.

Updated Original


24 June Bottom Scenario

15 ott 2018

Nota

Updated BTC chart and count based on Black Swan truncated fifth waves. Similar to 24 June bottom scenario but remain in current cycle. Indicates potential for LTC cycle to remain correlated with BTC’s.

31 ott 2018

Nota

Wrapping up a wave 1. Targets for next wave indicated in chart.

31 ott 2018

Nota

More details if you click chart.