6/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
LULU
Buy $260s, but not "need" to own
- stock is objectively a buy here in the $260s, let's get that out of the way
- but when it comes to "what can happen next" or "what's the floor/drawdown", i think a few considerations
- flat EPS guide in '25 is not bc of structural issues w brand, so high teens PE esp on '26 #s is reasonable and FCF supports in mid to high 4s on '26 ests.
- the main fly in the ointment is obviously the US consumer and recession issues (second would be tariffs and ability to take price - which they talked on conf call - into this "weaker" consumer)
- ultimately i'd expect the stock to recover a bit here into the high $200s... perhaps $280 such macro doesn't fall to pieces immediately, but will be hard to see stock recover $300 soon.
- i also tend to think the lows could be tested if we get a risk off moment sooner vs. later
- and this isn't a "need to own" in my book at the moment, esp while i'm packing high conviction on obtc, nxt, gamb, tsm and starting to wrangle tsla as of y'day.
- so let's see.
- i won't get *too* greedy. i'm tempted here.
tldr
- but my target is probably in the sub $250 level to start biting and building position
be well my friends, have a good weekend!
V
LULUBuy $260s, but not "need" to own
- stock is objectively a buy here in the $260s, let's get that out of the way
- but when it comes to "what can happen next" or "what's the floor/drawdown", i think a few considerations
- flat EPS guide in '25 is not bc of structural issues w brand, so high teens PE esp on '26 #s is reasonable and FCF supports in mid to high 4s on '26 ests.
- the main fly in the ointment is obviously the US consumer and recession issues (second would be tariffs and ability to take price - which they talked on conf call - into this "weaker" consumer)
- ultimately i'd expect the stock to recover a bit here into the high $200s... perhaps $280 such macro doesn't fall to pieces immediately, but will be hard to see stock recover $300 soon.
- i also tend to think the lows could be tested if we get a risk off moment sooner vs. later
- and this isn't a "need to own" in my book at the moment, esp while i'm packing high conviction on obtc, nxt, gamb, tsm and starting to wrangle tsla as of y'day.
- so let's see.
- i won't get *too* greedy. i'm tempted here.
tldr
- but my target is probably in the sub $250 level to start biting and building position
be well my friends, have a good weekend!
V
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.