LUPIN : Making or Breaking?

1. Key Analysis and Levels

1. Wave C Completion Zone (₹1946-1982):
   
   The price has reached a potential corrective Wave C termination area, which often acts as a demand zone where buyers re-enter.
   This zone is a high-probability reversal region based on Elliott Wave principles.
   
2. Stop Loss Level (₹1924):
   
   Positioned below the Wave C correction zone to manage risk in case of further downside.
   Protects against potential failure of the demand zone.
   
3. First Target Zone (₹2245-2277):
   
   Represents the extended retracement of Wave B and serves as a logical resistance zone for profit booking.
   
4. Change of Character (CHoCH):
   
   A CHoCH signal (change from lower lows to higher highs) could confirm the start of a new bullish wave.
   

2. Trade Setup

1. A. Long Trade Setup:Why Long?
   
   The price has reached a critical demand zone (₹1946-1982) with potential for reversal.
   The CHoCH zone suggests a possible trend change to bullish.
   Entry: Around ₹1980-2000, upon observing bullish price action (e.g., hammer candlestick, engulfing patterns).
   
   Stop Loss: ₹1924, ensuring minimal risk if the correction extends.
   
   Targets:
   
   ₹2245-2277: Key resistance zone at the extended retracement of Wave B.
   Trailing stops can be used for further upside beyond ₹2277.
   
2. B. Short Trade Setup (If Demand Zone Fails):Why Short?
   
   A strong breakdown below ₹1924 could indicate the demand zone has failed, leading to continuation of the downtrend.
   Entry: Below ₹1924 after confirmation of breakdown with volume.
   
   Targets:
   
   ₹1850: Immediate support from prior structure.
   ₹1720-1750: Deeper demand zone.
   Stop Loss: ₹1970 to avoid being caught in a false breakdown.
   

3. Explanation of Analysis

1. Wave C Completion:
   
   The corrective Wave C often concludes near key Fibonacci retracement levels, aligning with ₹1946-1982 here.
   This zone has historical relevance as a demand area.
   
2. CHoCH Confirmation:
   
   A breakout and higher high beyond the consolidation range would validate bullish sentiment.
   
3. Risk-Reward Dynamics:
   
   Well-defined stop loss and target zones ensure favorable risk-to-reward setups for both long and short trades.
   

4. Confirmation Signals

1. For Long Entry:
   
   Price stability and bullish reversal signals (e.g., RSI divergence, bullish engulfing candles) in the ₹1946-1982 zone.
   A confirmed breakout above ₹2020 would further validate the trend reversal.
   
2. For Short Entry:
   
   A decisive close below ₹1924 with high volume and bearish momentum.
   

5. Risk Management

1. []Limit risk to 1-2% of your trading capital per trade.
   []Use scaling techniques to lock partial profits at the first target zone, trailing stop losses for additional gains.
   

Why This Plan Works

This trading strategy combines Elliott Wave analysis, demand-supply dynamics, and structured price levels to anticipate a potential bullish reversal. It also incorporates a contingency plan for a bearish breakdown, ensuring preparedness for all market scenarios.