MATIC-USD: The Elliott Wave Cycle of Polygon.

20 feb

Much speculation has circulated in the crypto press recently about Polygon’s prospects for a one-dollar valuation of its token MATIC. Can it perhaps even reclaim its all-time high of $3.00?

While the first question has been answered by the market already—the renewed bullishness of
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, has sparked a new rally—the second answer lies in an in-depth analysis of its market structure.

20 feb

Nota

This chart shows the market data of MATIC essentially from its start of trading on Binance. This comprises four major waves, missing only the fifth wave of a complete Elliott wave sequence, which has five waves. I appropriately marked it in the Cycle degree with capital Roman numerals.

We cannot quite be certain that the fourth wave is actually finished until price breaks decidedly above the Elliott triangle after completing wave ‘e’. At this time, wave e appears completed, and a new bullish wave has commenced taking the coin to the one dollar mark.

All questions about MATIC’s future now lie in the progress of this fifth wave.

22 feb

Nota

I am not entirely sassy red that the triangle is perfectly complete yet, because of internal wave structure. The market has risen just above the trend line and the dollar mark by a penny or three, though. More patience is needed.
As for targets for the fifth wave, the Elliott fib projections, are a bit crazy. Going by the size of the third wave, this could go to $300. But there will be strong resistance at three dollars. This is certainly a time question also.

13 apr

Nota

2024-04-13
Since the end of the large multi-year triangle correction shown in the previous charts, MATIC has left the triangle in wave five and produced a straight run into the 1.20 dollar range, following bitcoin’s ascend to a new ATH.
Just like bitcoin, it appears to have exhibited an irregular top formed by the b-wave of the correction of the run.. The correction, labeled wave two, continued in a downward direction to about 91 cents, at which point a recovery in bitcoin lifted the market once again to over the dollar mark. In April, a precipitous decline followed, culminating in a deep plunge to 71 cents on April 12.
This should mark the end of wave two, as shown in the chart.

13 apr

Nota

It should be noted that the decline in wave two stopped just short of the origin of wave one, which was at 69.2 cents. This provides a fairly safe assumption that the end of the correction has been reached, or is very close, as dropping below 69.2 cents would invalidate the entire bullish assumption, and destroy this wave count.

In the last couple minutes since posting the chart, prices dropped just a bit low even, but still maintaining the minimum.

15 apr

Nota

In the end of this correction, the price finally dropped below our threshold, with an apparent low of 59.0 cents.
This means that the entire bullish wave assignment since January is now invalidated. It simply belonged into the triangle correction in waves D and E, and shown in this updated chart.
I have to say that I was very cautious about the bullish count, but continued since MATIC kept rising over 20% over the one dollar line. But this so typical for a D-wave. They are often bull traps. And this one certainly was. The bitcoin flush cleared that very effectively. And I have found the same true for other some altcoins.
Perhaps this is the start of altseason, if there even is such a thing.