#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear channel
comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear channel
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.