MSTR - 2024's Best High Beta Play

13 mar

After entering MSTR at $200 in January of 2023, it is evident that MicroStrategy shines as the ideal stock to generate profit day after day. Given its high beta nature and volatility based on Bitcoin's movement, we can price MSTR in a manner that is fixed to Bitcoin's price.

The reasoning is that MicroStrategy believes, and has believed, that BTC is the most appropriate store of value now and in the future.

It appears that they may be correct.

I am anticipating MSTR to surpass $1750-1775 and reach $2,000.

BTC should hit $75,000 at that point.

This is where I will decide to sell off some shares in anticipation of a price correction down to $800-$1250 per share of MSTR. At this time, I believe Bitcoin will fall to 52K to 55K. It should, in order to make sense, considering liquidity in the market.

As of 3/13/2024, it costs $42,000-$47,000 USD to mine 1 BTC, based on the average cost of electricity globally.

I believe we will see a very common "sell the news" event come April prior to, or during, the halving. Bitcoin will correct.

The halving will double the complexity to mine one Bitcoin, which will push the electricity cost to the range of $84,000-$95,000 USD.

This will be the next gap up, and Bitcoin will continue to reach historical highs.

Stay tuned.

19 mar

Nota

Price action is tracing Bitcoin, as expected.

There's been a drop from $73,000-$74,000 USD for 1 BTC to a $63,000 USD for 1 BTC, as of 03/19/2024.

This has played out in less than two weeks time.

$700-$800 would be the price-fixed support level for MSTR based on a $52,000-$55,000 USD BTC.

19 mar

Nota

Here is the updated Daily for more precise values.

I made a mistake by indicating that the downtrend would take 379 days.

12 apr

Nota

Here's an update of my chart view.



Note: My predictions have remained the same.
Please read previous updates to this idea.

We did touch $2000 as I predicted in my March 13th, 2024 posting.
Now, the crash.

18 apr

Nota

WOW, look at the chart follow my line down... almost perfect!

There was the anticipated crash as mentioned last week.
Will it further down to 52-55K?

It is hard to say at this stage. I simply don't know.

We're at a break point. Either we spike back towards a 100K BTC or we fall more to a 52-55K BTC.

I won't re-enter unless it does fall down to a $700-$1000 MSTR or a $52,000-$55,000 BTC

8 nov

Trade attivo

Updates will be coming soon as we've surpassed the previous ATH of $73,000-$74,000 USD for 1
BTC.

A new post will be delivered this weekend.

Any questions please ask in the comments and they will be answered.

11 nov

Nota

After observing MSTR's consistent beta movement of 1.59x relative to Bitcoin, it's evident that MicroStrategy continues to shine as the ideal stock for capturing leveraged Bitcoin exposure. Given its high beta nature and volatility based on Bitcoin's movement, we can pretty effectively price MSTR in a manner that is fixed to Bitcoin's price movements.

Current Position Analysis
- MSTR: $272.36 (on Friday)
- BTC: $76,417 (on Friday)

The reasoning remains solid - MicroStrategy believes, and has believed, that BTC is the most appropriate store of value now and in the future. The evidence continues to support their thesis.

Price Targets
I am anticipating MSTR to reach $317-343 when BTC hits the $85,000-90,000 range. This is where strategic position management becomes crucial. A partial position reduction would be smart in anticipation of a significant price correction.

Expected Correction
The correction should take MSTR down to the $143-157 range, coinciding with Bitcoin pulling back to $52,000-55,000. This retracement makes sense from a market liquidity perspective and aligns with typical crypto market cycles.

Mining Economics
Current mining expenses suggest a fundamental floor. After the next period of mining difficulty adjustments, we expect production costs to create natural price support. This economic reality will drive the next significant move upward.

Long-Term Projection
The longer-term outlook points to MSTR reaching approximately $502 when BTC achieves $120,000. This projection is based on:

- Maintained 1.59x price correlation
- Historical movement patterns
- Mining cost economics
- Market liquidity cycles

Trading Strategy
1. Current Levels to $85,000 BTC
- Hold existing positions
- Add on minor pullbacks
- Target MSTR: $317-343

2. $85,000-90,000 BTC Range
- Begin scaling out positions
- Lock in profits
- Prepare for correction

3. Correction Phase
- BTC Target: $52,000-55,000
- MSTR Target: $143-157
- Prime accumulation zone

4. Recovery and Consolidation
- BTC: $70,000-73,000
- MSTR: $238-253
- Rebuild positions

5. Long-term Movement
- Final Target: MSTR $502+
- BTC Target: $120,000
- Scale positions accordingly

------------------

Current Snapshot as of 11/10:

BTC: $80,500 (up from our last analysis at $76,417)
Change: +$4,083 (+5.34% increase)
Expected MSTR movement: 5.34% × 1.59 = 8.49% increase
Therefore, MSTR should theoretically be around $295-$300 (from $272.36)

We're approaching our predicted range of $85,000-90,000 BTC faster than anticipated!

If the 1.59x correlation holds:
At BTC $85,000: MSTR should hit ≈ $317
At BTC $90,000: MSTR should reach ≈ $343

Please note that we're in the profit-taking preparation zone. The rapid move toward $80,500 suggests really strong momentum. The correction target ($52,000-55,000) becomes more relevant as we push higher too.

11 nov

Nota

11 nov

Nota

Target of $300 for MSTR has been hit at 9:30AM EST on 11/11/2024.
BTC has reached $82,200 roughly.

11 nov

Nota

History has been made for MSTR today.

MSTR has crossed through $333 per share, which was the ATH set during the week of March 6th in the year 2000.

Microstrategy has not seen this all-time high since the DOT COM bubble in 2000!

This is pretty remarkable.

l’altro ieri

Nota

Speechless. 🤐