The bears are awake

Di wsbza

Aggiornato

Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

Nota

We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

Nota

Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

Nota

2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

Nota

the dollar index says Euro may decline further

Nota

short-term bear still alive

Nota

alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

Nota

expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

Nota

blue wave iv circle is still under way

Nota

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

Nota

the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

Nota

break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

Nota

short-term sell set up

Nota

ready for sell again?

Nota

it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

Nota

wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

Nota

time to secure some profits

Nota

possible count 1

Nota

possible count 2

Nota

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

Nota

EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

Nota

expanded flat ?

Nota

almost there?

Nota

a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

Nota

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

Nota

bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

Nota

break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

Nota

let's review the larger structure

Nota

any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

Nota

the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

Nota

time to adopt more bearish count

Nota

bearish count

Nota

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

Nota

It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

Nota

idealised selling opportunity

Nota

bearish assumption

Nota

if wave B is a triangle, then wave C could be an ending diagonal

Nota

short-term count if an ending diagonal for wave C in the making

Nota

other possible structure

Nota

possible short-term count

Nota

wave C done

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

Anche su:

Declinazione di responsabilità

Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.