US Nas 100
Short

NAS100 Breakdown Watch: Bearish Structure Forms Below Key Highs

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1. Key Levels
Yesterday’s High: 20,037.0

Yesterday’s Low: 19,658.8

Today’s High (so far): 19,912.4

Current Price: 19,844.4

Price is currently trading below today’s high and below yesterday’s high, but still well above yesterday’s low.

2. Structure & Market Flow
The BoS/ChoCh (Break of Structure / Change of Character) indicator marks:

Multiple BoS (green) up to the April 30th peak, showing bullish structure.

A ChoCh (red) occurred just after the top on April 30, followed by more ChoCh signals, indicating potential short-term bearish momentum.

Most recent price action shows consolidation between 19,840–19,912, forming a range after rejecting near today's high.

3. Moving Averages (3EMA)
Blue Line (Short EMA - 20): 19,843.0

Purple Line (Mid EMA - 50): 19,840.3

Price is slightly above both the 20 and 50 EMA, which are now flattening — suggesting neutral momentum with no strong trend currently in place.

4. Market Context / Price Action
The sharp rejection at 20,037 (yesterday's high) indicates supply pressure.

Price wicked above today’s high before dropping below both EMAs.

Price bounced around the 50 EMA and appears to be forming lower highs, showing bearish microstructure.

Current structure looks like a potential distribution pattern.

5. Trade Ideas (Scenarios)
A. Bearish Bias (High Probability if 19,840 breaks cleanly)
Entry: Break and close below 19,840 with volume confirmation.

TP1: 19,700 (just above yesterday’s low)

TP2: 19,658.8 (yesterday’s low)

SL: Above 19,912 (today’s high)

This setup capitalizes on a rejection of key highs, a ChoCh confirmation, and fading bullish momentum.

B. Bullish Scenario (Only if we reclaim today’s high)
Entry: Strong 15-min candle close above 19,912, targeting 20,037 and beyond.

TP1: 20,037 (yesterday’s high)

TP2: 20,100–20,150 (psychological and recent rejection zone)

SL: Below 19,840

This would be a breakout-retest continuation trade, but less favorable given current structure.

6. Bias & Recommendation
Short Bias is currently favored due to:

Repeated ChoCh signals

Price trading below today's high and rejecting yesterday’s high

Weak upside follow-through despite attempts to push higher

Tight consolidation and lower highs forming near resistance

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