NQ - still (cautiously) bullish despite the volatility
Despite all the uncertainties and volatility in the market, the US indices especially Nasdaq has been resilient. Nasdaq has led the run up since the start of this year and as long as NQ continues to be in the lead among the 3 major indices (namely NQ, SPX an DJI), the market could remain overall bullish.
The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900)
The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing.
Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy).
Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade).
The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways.
p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900)
The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing.
Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy).
Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade).
The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways.
p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
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