NIFTY-Weekly View-Venkat's Blog

First three days of the week saw intense action to achieve a new ATH. The Index made a new ATH of 18887 and started cooling off. The Option expiry and month cross-over saw profit booking. Consolidation at every stage is a healthy sign.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved around 520 points viz. between 18365 and 18887
  With the strong move the oscillators are showing positive bias
  Option OI is expected to drive the market direction
  The Index made higher highs and higher lows and it ended up with a bullish candle
  Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  Though closed at 18696, the Index is expected to open higher
  Break below the trend line support at 18470 would see the index drift lower
  For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 18607, 18530, 18470 and the index could face resistances at18855. 18970 and 19040
  A daily close above 18870 would be seen as strongly biased towards a quick move towards 19K
  The oscillators in the Monthly chart are turning positive
  

Additional interesting observations

• As expected the projected target of 18530 followed by 18700 based on Fib projection of Monthly charts have been achieved and the next projection is around the range of 19040-19120
  Both FIIs and DIIs seem to be net positive
  Two possible scenarios
  Expected rage of 18460-18970 or 18530-19050
  Any breach on a daily closing basis below 18460 would trigger stops and we may expect the move extending to 18240. Any close outside the range of 18460-18970 requires re-assessment of risk
  

Final Note

• As being highlighted in the previous blogs, the NIFTY is all set to move towards the ultimate target of 19K based on the Inv H&S pattern on weekly with Head at 15800 & base at 17600. Do not see reasons to fail
  The first goal of making a New ATH has been achieved. There may be one attempt to surpass
  While the cross-over of 18530 would be treated as a move towards final target of 19k
  If for any reason we see a closing below 18470 then there are chances that we may see a course correction before reemerging with renewed vigor
  There are no signs of a possible reversal yet
  There are higher possibilities of churning of portfolio
  Just a couple of sessions/weeks make markets to change perceptions
  An interesting week ahead
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.