My previous analysis on this same chart was obsoleted by the Tariffs announcement on "Liberation Day" - which caused the (tech) market to accelerate the drop down to almost 25% in the week of April 2
SO here's the updated view after "some recovery" from that low. For better visibility, i hid the price (as a faint blue line) so i can focus on the signals that *are really critical to see*.
What are we looking at here ?
==========================
- The thick purple and blue lines are 20 and 50 SMAs - the gray line is a 100 SMA
- this is a weekly chart representing NASDAQ 100 futures as a Tech market proxy
- Lower indicators are a MACD (showing momentum) and RSI (showing strength) - settings for these indicators are sync'ed to the price chart (so the 20/50 crossing will show on MACD as main line crossing zero, RSI is also set to 20 SMA)
What is scary here ?
===================
- we had a 20/50 SMA death cross (20 SMA moving below 50SMA on weekly chart) twice in the last 9 years - we're about to get one this week
- There are 2 main scenarios after a death cross forms, recovery and crash - as seen by the past crosses from December'18 and April'22 (Note: COVID crash didn't cause a death cross)
Why is this specific view important ?
==================================
Our trading plan needs to be adjusted (if crash, go to cash and wait, if recovery, ride the wave up) - for position traders, there's really no gain trading stocks in a market that is breaking down
what's next ?
==============
i'm watching this view to track what the market does next - with how dynamic the situation is with US market / economy, it's hard to tell which scenario will unfold. On one hand, US admin wants to show market improvement, and on the other, certain ill-planned economic "moves" are pulling the market down..
Which scenario do you think will unfold here?
SO here's the updated view after "some recovery" from that low. For better visibility, i hid the price (as a faint blue line) so i can focus on the signals that *are really critical to see*.
What are we looking at here ?
==========================
- The thick purple and blue lines are 20 and 50 SMAs - the gray line is a 100 SMA
- this is a weekly chart representing NASDAQ 100 futures as a Tech market proxy
- Lower indicators are a MACD (showing momentum) and RSI (showing strength) - settings for these indicators are sync'ed to the price chart (so the 20/50 crossing will show on MACD as main line crossing zero, RSI is also set to 20 SMA)
What is scary here ?
===================
- we had a 20/50 SMA death cross (20 SMA moving below 50SMA on weekly chart) twice in the last 9 years - we're about to get one this week
- There are 2 main scenarios after a death cross forms, recovery and crash - as seen by the past crosses from December'18 and April'22 (Note: COVID crash didn't cause a death cross)
Why is this specific view important ?
==================================
Our trading plan needs to be adjusted (if crash, go to cash and wait, if recovery, ride the wave up) - for position traders, there's really no gain trading stocks in a market that is breaking down
what's next ?
==============
i'm watching this view to track what the market does next - with how dynamic the situation is with US market / economy, it's hard to tell which scenario will unfold. On one hand, US admin wants to show market improvement, and on the other, certain ill-planned economic "moves" are pulling the market down..
Which scenario do you think will unfold here?
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.