NZDCHF Reversal Builds as Trade Data Surprises Bulls Eye 0.5078

NZDCHF has formed a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern on the 4H chart, with price currently hovering above the neckline at 0.4840. The technical breakout remains valid, with bullish targets at:

TP1: 0.4993

TP2: 0.5078

SL: Below 0.4740

🧠 Fundamental Update – NZ Trade Balance (Apr 21):
Latest Data:
Actual: +80M

Forecast: +510M

Previous: +510M
✅ Still positive, but below expectations
⚠️ Weaker-than-expected trade surplus may weigh on NZD short-term

Combined With Recent CPI Data (Apr 16):
Inflation rose to 2.5% YoY, higher than forecast but still within the RBNZ's target band

Most price pressures are seen as temporary (fuel, education)

RBNZ cut OCR to 3.5% in April and has left the door open to further cuts

Markets still fully price in a rate cut on May 28, with a projected floor of 2.75% by October

🌏 Global Context:
Trade tensions and slowing global growth (esp. from U.S. tariff risk) are driving demand for safe havens like CHF

ANZ economists have revised forecasts for additional RBNZ easing to 2.5%, citing weak global sentiment

🧭 Interpretation for NZDCHF:
Short-term:
✅ Positive technical structure
✅ Net trade surplus supports slight NZD demand
⚠️ Trade miss and dovish RBNZ tone keep bullish momentum cautious

Medium-term:
⚠️ Macro headwinds + expected RBNZ cut may limit upside
⚠️ Potential pullbacks if rate-cut sentiment strengthens into May

💡 Final Trade Strategy:
Bullish bias valid above 0.4840, but watch for volatility

Profit-taking recommended at 0.4993

Be cautious near 0.5078, especially before the May 28 RBNZ meeting

A close below 0.4740 would invalidate the bullish setup