NZDCHF_Technical_Fundamental_01042019Weekly
NZD exchange rates will depend on the following factors this week:
April 2 (Tuesday) -
• NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1) [Source: FXStreet]
• GDT Price Index [Myfxbook]
The NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of
Economic Research shows the business outlook in New Zealand. The
Business Confidence allows analysis of the economic situation in the short
term. Increasing numbers indicate increases in business investment that
lead to higher levels of output. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or
bullish), while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous
value was -17% and guesstimated value are not present. According to
guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or
south.
The GDT Price Index, released by Global Dairy Trade, uses a weighted average of the percentage changes in prices. GDT Price Indices are used to avoid the bias of a simple weighted average price and to give a more accurate reflection of the price movements between trading events.
The previous percentage was 1.9% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.3%.
According to guesstimated percentage NZD will go bearish.
Overall Daily Forecast: NZD Bearish
Overall Weekly Forecast: NZD Bearish
CHF exchange rates will depend on the following factors this week:
April 1 (Monday) -
Real Retail Sales (YoY) [Source: Myfxbook]
Manufacturing PMI [Source: Babypips]
Retail Sales is conducted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The retail sales is a survey of goods sold in the last month and serve as an indicator of the Swiss consumer demand. Generally, an increase in this figure is bullish for the CHF while a decrease is bearish. The previous percentage was -0.4% and guesstimated percentage is -0.8%. According to a guesstimated percentage, CHF will go bullish.
The Manufacturing (PMI) released by the Schweizerischer Verband für Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf and Credit Suisse capture business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of production growth in Switzerland. A result that values above 50 signals appreciate (or is bullish for) the CHF,
whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous value was 55.4 and guesstimated value is 53.5. According to guesstimated value
CHF will go bullish.
Overall Daily Forecast: CHF Bullish
April 2 (Tuesday) -
Consumer Price Index (YoY) [Source: Myfxbook]
HICP (YoY) [Source: Babypips]
The Consumer Price Index, issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The purchasing power of CHF is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is positive for the CHF, while a low reading is negative. The previous percentage was 0.6% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.6%. According to the guesstimated percentage, CHF will remain neutral because no changes can be seen.
The HICP measures the changes over time in the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by households. It is calculated according to a harmonized approach and a single set of definitions giving a comparable measure of inflation. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator that the member states of EU and EFTA calculate based on a harmonized method and that allows comparing inflation internationally. The Swiss HICP is an indicator for comparing inflation in Switzerland with that of its European neighbors. The previous percentage was 0.7% and a guesstimated percentage is not present. According to guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or south.
Overall Daily Forecast: Confusing
April 5 (Friday) -
• Foreign Currency Reserves [Source: Babypips]
Foreign Currency Reserves are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by the Swiss National Bank and monetary authorities. It provides insight into the SNB's currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro. The previous reserve was 739B and guesstimated percentage is not present. According to guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to north or south.
Overall Daily Forecast: Confusing
Overall Weekly Forecast: Bullish
Technical
According to the Monthly chart, NZDCHF is following a descending trendline. Where it tested and rebounded in July 2017 and May 2018. and now it's consolidated below the line in a manner which indicates that it is gathering for a breakout in the upper section.
If fundamental factors drive NZD upward, it'll break out of 0.6900 zone and head towards 0.71000 zone which is highly unlikely according to our fundamental forecast.
If fundamental factor drives the pair down as NZD is to be Bearish and CHF helps by going bull according to our bias,
It will rebound from 0.6900 zone and head towards 0.6700 zone, where further downwards breakout can drive
April 2 (Tuesday) -
• NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1) [Source: FXStreet]
• GDT Price Index [Myfxbook]
The NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of
Economic Research shows the business outlook in New Zealand. The
Business Confidence allows analysis of the economic situation in the short
term. Increasing numbers indicate increases in business investment that
lead to higher levels of output. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or
bullish), while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous
value was -17% and guesstimated value are not present. According to
guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or
south.
The GDT Price Index, released by Global Dairy Trade, uses a weighted average of the percentage changes in prices. GDT Price Indices are used to avoid the bias of a simple weighted average price and to give a more accurate reflection of the price movements between trading events.
The previous percentage was 1.9% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.3%.
According to guesstimated percentage NZD will go bearish.
Overall Daily Forecast: NZD Bearish
Overall Weekly Forecast: NZD Bearish
CHF exchange rates will depend on the following factors this week:
April 1 (Monday) -
Real Retail Sales (YoY) [Source: Myfxbook]
Manufacturing PMI [Source: Babypips]
Retail Sales is conducted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The retail sales is a survey of goods sold in the last month and serve as an indicator of the Swiss consumer demand. Generally, an increase in this figure is bullish for the CHF while a decrease is bearish. The previous percentage was -0.4% and guesstimated percentage is -0.8%. According to a guesstimated percentage, CHF will go bullish.
The Manufacturing (PMI) released by the Schweizerischer Verband für Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf and Credit Suisse capture business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of production growth in Switzerland. A result that values above 50 signals appreciate (or is bullish for) the CHF,
whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous value was 55.4 and guesstimated value is 53.5. According to guesstimated value
CHF will go bullish.
Overall Daily Forecast: CHF Bullish
April 2 (Tuesday) -
Consumer Price Index (YoY) [Source: Myfxbook]
HICP (YoY) [Source: Babypips]
The Consumer Price Index, issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The purchasing power of CHF is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is positive for the CHF, while a low reading is negative. The previous percentage was 0.6% and the guesstimated percentage is 0.6%. According to the guesstimated percentage, CHF will remain neutral because no changes can be seen.
The HICP measures the changes over time in the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by households. It is calculated according to a harmonized approach and a single set of definitions giving a comparable measure of inflation. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator that the member states of EU and EFTA calculate based on a harmonized method and that allows comparing inflation internationally. The Swiss HICP is an indicator for comparing inflation in Switzerland with that of its European neighbors. The previous percentage was 0.7% and a guesstimated percentage is not present. According to guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to the north or south.
Overall Daily Forecast: Confusing
April 5 (Friday) -
• Foreign Currency Reserves [Source: Babypips]
Foreign Currency Reserves are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by the Swiss National Bank and monetary authorities. It provides insight into the SNB's currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro. The previous reserve was 739B and guesstimated percentage is not present. According to guesstimated value CHF has no clue whether it should move to north or south.
Overall Daily Forecast: Confusing
Overall Weekly Forecast: Bullish
Technical
According to the Monthly chart, NZDCHF is following a descending trendline. Where it tested and rebounded in July 2017 and May 2018. and now it's consolidated below the line in a manner which indicates that it is gathering for a breakout in the upper section.
If fundamental factors drive NZD upward, it'll break out of 0.6900 zone and head towards 0.71000 zone which is highly unlikely according to our fundamental forecast.
If fundamental factor drives the pair down as NZD is to be Bearish and CHF helps by going bull according to our bias,
It will rebound from 0.6900 zone and head towards 0.6700 zone, where further downwards breakout can drive
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