NZDJPY 2H SHORT

Fundamental Analysis:
• JPY10 is in an uptrend, which suggests to me that the yen is undervalued.
• Even though risk sentiment is not a major factor in the current context—since the main macro driver right now is Trump, I wouldn’t be surprised if, given this uncertainty, investors turn to the yen, especially since the BOJ is one of the most hawkish central banks at the moment.
• New Zealand’s data has been generally weak, but this week’s data could surprise, which is why I have reduced my risk.

Technical Analysis:
• Overall downtrend on HTF (Daily, H8).
• Triple top formation right at the 50% Fibonacci level.
• Strong bearish divergence with the RSI.
• Retail traders are mostly long.
• COT report supports my direction.
• Targeting 83.100.
• SL placed behind the recent highs, behind the triple top, behind the 3-touch resistance, and on the 200 SMA.
• Entry on the break of the 50 SMA, which has been respected overall.