Markets news n°36
Aggiornato
> George Soros says Xi Jinping is ruining the economy and predicts investors in China are in for a rude awakening
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The billionaire said: "Xi Jinping’s crackdown on private enterprise has been a significant drag on the economy. International investors are in for a rude awakening.". He also said "I consider Xi Jinping the most dangerous enemy of open societies in the world.". Of course the chinese answered, and this is more pointless drama than anything, they called him a "global economic terrorist". I think the Malaysian PM had words a big more crude, a jew conspiracy was mentionned, I bet the chinese would love to make racist comments. When this country falls apart and they start getting nervous the conspiracies and antisemitism and blaming "the bankers and speculators" are sure to come back.
Blackrock, which is basically a mindless company that never had an exceptional performance but manages a whole lot of money, got on the hype train of "China next superpower" bla bla bla, totally missing the reasons as to why they grew so much. The reasons are pretty obvious: demographics - which are really getting bad now - and they came from very low! Their historical GDP share has been around 20-35% and a few decades ago it was down to 1%! So of course when their society sort of goes "back to normal" the grow will be gigantic, to go to their historical average it would take a 30X. Going up strong and fast doesn't mean they'll continue past their "normal" share of world GDP. Soros called Blackrock decision to invest in the chinese hype a "tragic mistake", and blackrock responded by whining and saying something along the lines of "stop spreading FUD".
> Another day trading "magic system just be disciplined" vendor goes to jail, another crypto ponzi crook gets charged
***********************
Another day, another day trader bites the dust. Just like in the mid 80s and late 90s "day traders" are back, giving us life lessons. I'd say it started since last year with the whole Dave Portnoy thing. They're all coming out of the woodwork letting us know how they're all "part of the 1%" and "you just need to be disciplined" or some crap.
Well, crooks are taking advantage of it again, and this summer a crook called Leonard J. Cipolla got a 10 years jail sentence handed to him for selling a "secret trading system" that would "virtually guaranteed a gain of 10-30% per month". He used his winning account statements for a period of 2 years to draw suckers in "here is the proof". A few months or years ago I remember proving that a typical day trading macd strategy was equivalent - but inferior - to taking a single position on the market for a few months, it "works" when it's trending, but not too strong (or you never get signals). I think they have no clue their strategies are something like taking a long position on volatility, or even a long on the market period. People don't understand this are just ignorant. Then they go "well market conditions change". It's just so stupid.
The list of people that were excited and absolutely persuaded they'd make millions and I'm waiting to get back to me or get back to a forum is too long for me to remember. The list of people that did get back to me is very easy: it's empty. How do these guys become so sure that's it they are the wonderboy they'll become a multi-millionaire? There is a guy I managed to get my hands on, in the league of legends client, he said something like "Oh well I am taking a break". These guys swear on their grandmothers "I will let you know how it went", and then when they fail as expected they are so ashamed and disappointed, even depressed, you don't hear a word.
I had coworkers at a bank get all euphoric about crypto and picturing themselves in fast cars, talking about it ALL THE TIME, every single day. A guy that kept bothering me each time BTC was going down was mysteriously away for several months (mental breakdown) when it dropped below 6000. When he came back he NEVER mentionned crypto. Not once. Which brings me to the other crook, and this is a pleasure, nearly as great as seeing day traders break their teeth: Bitconnect founder has been charged with fraud a few days ago. They got him boys. They always do. I'm sure they'll even find the "crypto queen" that disappeared.
I feel we will soon (next 2 years I guess) hear plenty of "Lehman" stories, and rogue day traders. Remember the day/swing trading guy that was deported to Ghana after losing 2 billions? He also lost all of his personal money with 2 CFD brokers gambling it all away. "How do the pros make money". Simple, they don't. I hope we get plenty of rogue gambler blow up stories.
The 10 years jail day trader official document, these stories are exquisite, I can never get enough:
justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/man-sentenced-prison-7-million-options-trading-scheme
> France is getting violent. Far right groups assault far left anti-pass groups with sticks, and everyone assaults police
***********************
And here is the violence. Revolution vibes. The government will keep pushing them against a wall, as they said "make their lives as miserable as possible" (genius), give them "no choice", make sure they have nothing to lose. It's so stupid... Unbelievable. Wow what could go wrong? So now the government is surprised at the violence, and even the die hard "system" journalists are jumping off the ship. Even Patrick Cohen which is the worlds leading shill for globalism and "covidism" has criticized our health minister and defended our "pro Chloroquine" doctors. The health minister made big round eyes he looked astonished. So did I, this nerd IS the world biggest shill for the "system". People hate him already so I don't know what these journalists are doing, they think people will forget? They'll sink with the ship, too late to change camps.
France has been protesting for months now, against the covid pass, and the media won't cover this but the internet will, and the images don't lie: far right & far left groups are fighting each other, and both sides are now getting violent with police - which might have started it. Ah of course, the media won't cover this; BUT Macron the president and the government funded media will cover "our president wants to curb police violence after allegations", ah yes of course it just happened to be right now, just after violence in the streets, must be a coincidence. They tried to crush the angry people in the street, and it made them even angrier. So now they're trying something else. Good luck.
> CNBC: "Russia is building its military influence in Africa, challenging U.S. and French dominance." As I expected...
***********************
Not so long ago I mentionned the Russians and Centrafrique roasting France. And I said this was just the start. Well, the trend continues: Nigeria and Mali (from which France just left) have signed with Russia. Also Ethiopia according to CNBC. Will Russia allow the Tuaregs to have some sort of freedom or just support the southerners like France did? Maybe Gaddafi son will be Libya next leader, the media forgot to mention this but the tribes got together and said he was the only one they'd allow to represent them all. If Russia does not impose their own vision, it's totally possible Libya this time around builds a united Africa - United but of course with a Tribal system and ethnostates that respects everyone culture and independance. Not what the west wanted. The west: all mixed together, but divided not united. Need our migrants.
A quick reminder: Iraq has been civilized with a tribal system for 10,000 years. The "advanced progressive" west got out of the forest about 2000 years ago. The forest dwellers spent so much time in the forest they have adapted to the poor light with blue eyes. Clearly the "primitive tribal system" worked for thousands of years, produced big progress, and wonders and all sorts of pyramids.
I predict the ethnic cleansings and so on will be dramatically reduced, as long as Russia respects African traditions. Goodbye refugee crisis. Even with all the harm the western NGOS, armies, clean energy dictats, and propaganda, have done, Africa has been developing. Imagine trippling the number of power plants, but your population quadrupled. It will look as if you are stagnating or declining. And why do they keep making kids? Western democracy. The ethny with the most people will get the most vote and therefore will rule over the other ethnicities. We don't need Bill Gates vaccines to slow the multiplication, what an ignorant fool, we need to stop the west from imposing their vision of the world on others. Some may explain the high fertility with "Oh well they have strong kin/tribe values" which is sort of rephrasing what I said.
> New Zealand might start a new leg down till 2023 if the delusional GDP consensus is not reached tomorrow night
***********************
Deluded economists and bankers might be wrong again, and New Zealand GDP numbers might be way lower than what they expect, then they'll get their little ties and go to tv or whatever and make up some explanexcuse. And if/when the GDP goes boom the price of NZD might also go boom.
If it crashes this week, this may be it. I don't think the USD is just going to go to zero overnight. Tommorow we are also getting Canada & UK CPI numbers, some China numbers. Then next week the big FED meeting. Maybe this week, or next week, is what gets this new year started.
The ECB and FED continue their far-west duel, no one wanting to do anything first. The status quo "easy monetary policies" continue.
On the NZ side: "Electronic retail card spending for August came in at -19.8% on a month-over-month basis, missing the 1.7% (delusional) consensus forecast. Visitor arrivals for July fell to 767.8% from 1365.2% the prior month.". That's so bad. Yeah it missed it alright. Slightly.
The price went up in a straight line for 2 weeks, 10/11 candles are green. So possibly the only thing holding the price up are day & swing gamblers that got excited or something. And once it falls, it could be violent.
> Aging germans can't stand getting beat by tech stocks and a poor performance indice: DAX 40 launches Monday 20
***********************
Just going to quote here:
"On Monday September 20th, STOXX a unit of Deutsche Borse, the German holding company of stock exchanges will implement what Reuters referred to as the biggest overhaul of the DAX index since it was created 33 years ago.
The biggest changes include:
Growing from 30 companies to 40 companies
Strict new index listing criteria
New de-listing rules (to enable faster action in instances like the Wirecard scandal)"
They are adding Airbus? Wasn't that a french company? 4 of the 10 new companies are health/chemical/genetic companies. Biotech basically. Apart from that there isn't anything special worth noting in my opinion. Seems diversified enough, which is what institutional investors wanted. After the Wirecard fraud hit them they got upset and wanted more diversification/companies so a single one wouldn't hurt so much. This would bring Germany to the number of France (CAC 40) and Italy (FTSE MIB, Italy main indice went from 30 to 40 in 2004), and still far behind the UK with their 100 companies. Even Spain had more companies in their indice than Germany (I'm not sure but banks might be a bit overweighted there), and the Dutch with less than 25% of Germany population have 25. Should have created a DAX-50 or even DAX-100. Germany is way smaller than the US so no DAX-500, but DAX-50 or 100 makes sense. Maybe the "Eurostoxx" should give back the companies they stole too. And indices per sector would be nice too.
Dear Santa Claus... Ye man if I wanted to buy 2 dozen companies I'd do just that not buy an indice. Going from 30 to 40 isn't much of an improvement but I think they didn't want to scare anyone, especially old people holding it. The DAX-40 companies have a mkt cap going from $15 bn to $175 bn. The ultra overvalued S&P 500 companies start at $4 bn. If the less overvalued German started at $3.3 bn it would be the DAX-100. If it started at $4 bn it would be the DAX-90. Going by price to earnings it could easilly be the DAX-100. Just mindlessly buying everything rather than taking intelligent decisions stock by stock is bad I guess but if you're going to make an indice anyway, give us an indice of large cap companies, blue chips. Dax-100. CAC-80.
The french indice is so troll, the "fashion" companies are so huge compared to the rest (wanted to buy the dip for a few weeks by the way). So you got the top 4 that are big fashion companies with the 2 biggest ones (L'Oréal par ce que je le vaux bien, LVMH) with a market cap of $262 and $385, LVMH has a weight of more than 10% that has to be some record, and the smallest ones are playing in another league around 15B. The top 5 make up 37% of the weight. Can't find the DAX weights, I guess it's a secret, I think it's more balanced than other ones. In the S&P 500 the top 9 stocks are all definitely not overvalued tech stocks + BRK, and their weight is more than 25%, Apple being the biggest with 6%. The Dow Jones valuations are complete troll it goes by price and the biggest weight is just under 8%. Some companies worth trillions, and some worth 3 bn. Well I guess it represents well the socialist monopoly system where 95% of the population are wageslaves.
Maybe this brings some hype back to the German stock market. The big winner other than the US ponzi has been France.
I rather want to buy these beastmode companies but I don't know where to buy for sure, maybe when it starts trending again, or a bit lower, maybe an ABC:
***********************
The billionaire said: "Xi Jinping’s crackdown on private enterprise has been a significant drag on the economy. International investors are in for a rude awakening.". He also said "I consider Xi Jinping the most dangerous enemy of open societies in the world.". Of course the chinese answered, and this is more pointless drama than anything, they called him a "global economic terrorist". I think the Malaysian PM had words a big more crude, a jew conspiracy was mentionned, I bet the chinese would love to make racist comments. When this country falls apart and they start getting nervous the conspiracies and antisemitism and blaming "the bankers and speculators" are sure to come back.
Blackrock, which is basically a mindless company that never had an exceptional performance but manages a whole lot of money, got on the hype train of "China next superpower" bla bla bla, totally missing the reasons as to why they grew so much. The reasons are pretty obvious: demographics - which are really getting bad now - and they came from very low! Their historical GDP share has been around 20-35% and a few decades ago it was down to 1%! So of course when their society sort of goes "back to normal" the grow will be gigantic, to go to their historical average it would take a 30X. Going up strong and fast doesn't mean they'll continue past their "normal" share of world GDP. Soros called Blackrock decision to invest in the chinese hype a "tragic mistake", and blackrock responded by whining and saying something along the lines of "stop spreading FUD".
> Another day trading "magic system just be disciplined" vendor goes to jail, another crypto ponzi crook gets charged
***********************
Another day, another day trader bites the dust. Just like in the mid 80s and late 90s "day traders" are back, giving us life lessons. I'd say it started since last year with the whole Dave Portnoy thing. They're all coming out of the woodwork letting us know how they're all "part of the 1%" and "you just need to be disciplined" or some crap.
Well, crooks are taking advantage of it again, and this summer a crook called Leonard J. Cipolla got a 10 years jail sentence handed to him for selling a "secret trading system" that would "virtually guaranteed a gain of 10-30% per month". He used his winning account statements for a period of 2 years to draw suckers in "here is the proof". A few months or years ago I remember proving that a typical day trading macd strategy was equivalent - but inferior - to taking a single position on the market for a few months, it "works" when it's trending, but not too strong (or you never get signals). I think they have no clue their strategies are something like taking a long position on volatility, or even a long on the market period. People don't understand this are just ignorant. Then they go "well market conditions change". It's just so stupid.
The list of people that were excited and absolutely persuaded they'd make millions and I'm waiting to get back to me or get back to a forum is too long for me to remember. The list of people that did get back to me is very easy: it's empty. How do these guys become so sure that's it they are the wonderboy they'll become a multi-millionaire? There is a guy I managed to get my hands on, in the league of legends client, he said something like "Oh well I am taking a break". These guys swear on their grandmothers "I will let you know how it went", and then when they fail as expected they are so ashamed and disappointed, even depressed, you don't hear a word.
I had coworkers at a bank get all euphoric about crypto and picturing themselves in fast cars, talking about it ALL THE TIME, every single day. A guy that kept bothering me each time BTC was going down was mysteriously away for several months (mental breakdown) when it dropped below 6000. When he came back he NEVER mentionned crypto. Not once. Which brings me to the other crook, and this is a pleasure, nearly as great as seeing day traders break their teeth: Bitconnect founder has been charged with fraud a few days ago. They got him boys. They always do. I'm sure they'll even find the "crypto queen" that disappeared.
I feel we will soon (next 2 years I guess) hear plenty of "Lehman" stories, and rogue day traders. Remember the day/swing trading guy that was deported to Ghana after losing 2 billions? He also lost all of his personal money with 2 CFD brokers gambling it all away. "How do the pros make money". Simple, they don't. I hope we get plenty of rogue gambler blow up stories.
The 10 years jail day trader official document, these stories are exquisite, I can never get enough:
justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/man-sentenced-prison-7-million-options-trading-scheme
> France is getting violent. Far right groups assault far left anti-pass groups with sticks, and everyone assaults police
***********************
And here is the violence. Revolution vibes. The government will keep pushing them against a wall, as they said "make their lives as miserable as possible" (genius), give them "no choice", make sure they have nothing to lose. It's so stupid... Unbelievable. Wow what could go wrong? So now the government is surprised at the violence, and even the die hard "system" journalists are jumping off the ship. Even Patrick Cohen which is the worlds leading shill for globalism and "covidism" has criticized our health minister and defended our "pro Chloroquine" doctors. The health minister made big round eyes he looked astonished. So did I, this nerd IS the world biggest shill for the "system". People hate him already so I don't know what these journalists are doing, they think people will forget? They'll sink with the ship, too late to change camps.
France has been protesting for months now, against the covid pass, and the media won't cover this but the internet will, and the images don't lie: far right & far left groups are fighting each other, and both sides are now getting violent with police - which might have started it. Ah of course, the media won't cover this; BUT Macron the president and the government funded media will cover "our president wants to curb police violence after allegations", ah yes of course it just happened to be right now, just after violence in the streets, must be a coincidence. They tried to crush the angry people in the street, and it made them even angrier. So now they're trying something else. Good luck.
> CNBC: "Russia is building its military influence in Africa, challenging U.S. and French dominance." As I expected...
***********************
Not so long ago I mentionned the Russians and Centrafrique roasting France. And I said this was just the start. Well, the trend continues: Nigeria and Mali (from which France just left) have signed with Russia. Also Ethiopia according to CNBC. Will Russia allow the Tuaregs to have some sort of freedom or just support the southerners like France did? Maybe Gaddafi son will be Libya next leader, the media forgot to mention this but the tribes got together and said he was the only one they'd allow to represent them all. If Russia does not impose their own vision, it's totally possible Libya this time around builds a united Africa - United but of course with a Tribal system and ethnostates that respects everyone culture and independance. Not what the west wanted. The west: all mixed together, but divided not united. Need our migrants.
A quick reminder: Iraq has been civilized with a tribal system for 10,000 years. The "advanced progressive" west got out of the forest about 2000 years ago. The forest dwellers spent so much time in the forest they have adapted to the poor light with blue eyes. Clearly the "primitive tribal system" worked for thousands of years, produced big progress, and wonders and all sorts of pyramids.
I predict the ethnic cleansings and so on will be dramatically reduced, as long as Russia respects African traditions. Goodbye refugee crisis. Even with all the harm the western NGOS, armies, clean energy dictats, and propaganda, have done, Africa has been developing. Imagine trippling the number of power plants, but your population quadrupled. It will look as if you are stagnating or declining. And why do they keep making kids? Western democracy. The ethny with the most people will get the most vote and therefore will rule over the other ethnicities. We don't need Bill Gates vaccines to slow the multiplication, what an ignorant fool, we need to stop the west from imposing their vision of the world on others. Some may explain the high fertility with "Oh well they have strong kin/tribe values" which is sort of rephrasing what I said.
> New Zealand might start a new leg down till 2023 if the delusional GDP consensus is not reached tomorrow night
***********************
Deluded economists and bankers might be wrong again, and New Zealand GDP numbers might be way lower than what they expect, then they'll get their little ties and go to tv or whatever and make up some explanexcuse. And if/when the GDP goes boom the price of NZD might also go boom.
If it crashes this week, this may be it. I don't think the USD is just going to go to zero overnight. Tommorow we are also getting Canada & UK CPI numbers, some China numbers. Then next week the big FED meeting. Maybe this week, or next week, is what gets this new year started.
The ECB and FED continue their far-west duel, no one wanting to do anything first. The status quo "easy monetary policies" continue.
On the NZ side: "Electronic retail card spending for August came in at -19.8% on a month-over-month basis, missing the 1.7% (delusional) consensus forecast. Visitor arrivals for July fell to 767.8% from 1365.2% the prior month.". That's so bad. Yeah it missed it alright. Slightly.
The price went up in a straight line for 2 weeks, 10/11 candles are green. So possibly the only thing holding the price up are day & swing gamblers that got excited or something. And once it falls, it could be violent.
> Aging germans can't stand getting beat by tech stocks and a poor performance indice: DAX 40 launches Monday 20
***********************
Just going to quote here:
"On Monday September 20th, STOXX a unit of Deutsche Borse, the German holding company of stock exchanges will implement what Reuters referred to as the biggest overhaul of the DAX index since it was created 33 years ago.
The biggest changes include:
Growing from 30 companies to 40 companies
Strict new index listing criteria
New de-listing rules (to enable faster action in instances like the Wirecard scandal)"
They are adding Airbus? Wasn't that a french company? 4 of the 10 new companies are health/chemical/genetic companies. Biotech basically. Apart from that there isn't anything special worth noting in my opinion. Seems diversified enough, which is what institutional investors wanted. After the Wirecard fraud hit them they got upset and wanted more diversification/companies so a single one wouldn't hurt so much. This would bring Germany to the number of France (CAC 40) and Italy (FTSE MIB, Italy main indice went from 30 to 40 in 2004), and still far behind the UK with their 100 companies. Even Spain had more companies in their indice than Germany (I'm not sure but banks might be a bit overweighted there), and the Dutch with less than 25% of Germany population have 25. Should have created a DAX-50 or even DAX-100. Germany is way smaller than the US so no DAX-500, but DAX-50 or 100 makes sense. Maybe the "Eurostoxx" should give back the companies they stole too. And indices per sector would be nice too.
Dear Santa Claus... Ye man if I wanted to buy 2 dozen companies I'd do just that not buy an indice. Going from 30 to 40 isn't much of an improvement but I think they didn't want to scare anyone, especially old people holding it. The DAX-40 companies have a mkt cap going from $15 bn to $175 bn. The ultra overvalued S&P 500 companies start at $4 bn. If the less overvalued German started at $3.3 bn it would be the DAX-100. If it started at $4 bn it would be the DAX-90. Going by price to earnings it could easilly be the DAX-100. Just mindlessly buying everything rather than taking intelligent decisions stock by stock is bad I guess but if you're going to make an indice anyway, give us an indice of large cap companies, blue chips. Dax-100. CAC-80.
The french indice is so troll, the "fashion" companies are so huge compared to the rest (wanted to buy the dip for a few weeks by the way). So you got the top 4 that are big fashion companies with the 2 biggest ones (L'Oréal par ce que je le vaux bien, LVMH) with a market cap of $262 and $385, LVMH has a weight of more than 10% that has to be some record, and the smallest ones are playing in another league around 15B. The top 5 make up 37% of the weight. Can't find the DAX weights, I guess it's a secret, I think it's more balanced than other ones. In the S&P 500 the top 9 stocks are all definitely not overvalued tech stocks + BRK, and their weight is more than 25%, Apple being the biggest with 6%. The Dow Jones valuations are complete troll it goes by price and the biggest weight is just under 8%. Some companies worth trillions, and some worth 3 bn. Well I guess it represents well the socialist monopoly system where 95% of the population are wageslaves.
Maybe this brings some hype back to the German stock market. The big winner other than the US ponzi has been France.
I rather want to buy these beastmode companies but I don't know where to buy for sure, maybe when it starts trending again, or a bit lower, maybe an ABC:
Nota
Ah the New Zealand numbers were "better" than expected.The GDP QoQ went from 1.4% to 2.8%, while the fake inflation number, the CPI, was at 1.3% QoQ on June and probably got higher since then.
NZ had a huge drop in tourism and exports if I remember correctly. Or imports, but either way something bad.
They just have inflation and the GDP of Zimbabwe also went up.
Doesn't even matter, the 18 August they reduced the interest rates, the NZD continued its drop a bit, and then started the uptrend.
It's ranging, I think it's going to go down, and I don't think it will deviate from what it wants to do unless something very significant happens. Like for example a 15% interest rate would make it go up, even I would buy, but that won't happen.
I hope I don't have to wait for 1-2 months just for it to stop me or start a trend down.
Nota
End of an era update, I guess this news article will do.BREAKING!!!
After France declared they were "stabbed in the back" by the US with a decision France top diplomat called "brutal, unilateral and unpredictable", after the EU lamented unilateral decisions by the USA without consulting them, after the France-US US revolution gala cancellation, after France declared "I am angry and bitter. This isn't done between allies.", after also previous events like Afghanistan rush reddition (americans running with their tails between their legs and abandonning equipment without even warning their allies), after EU foreign relation head said in his own word this showed they had to "put EU interest first (as the US put theirs first):
France has recalled its ambassadors from the US and Australia!
This must be the greatest escalation in tensions since the 60s when de Gaulle pulled out of Nato (or some part of Nato) after the US & UK made some nuclear deal in their back.
For now the white house brushed off the concerns of France, and their unofficial state media said something along the lines of "the EU better know its place if it does not want to be squashed" lmao I hope the white house doesn't say something like this.
Eagerly waiting for the US government response to France recalling its ambassadors, will they brush this off too?
Boy am I glad I closed some of my S&P positions, only keeping the warrant & the turbos with a tight stop. This week end could be explosive! And next week there's the FOMC too but the big thing is the diplomatic incident between the British Empire and the EU as well as the one between US and France.
Brexit happened, that's it. The FUD on Britain would be true if you replace "UK loses this this and this" by "the EU loses...". France is a historic ally of Russia, like even literally the first king of the slavs was a french trader, around the era of the prophet, he sold weapons to the slavs that were opressed by huns, he not only sold weapons he helped them fight - oh and obviously didn't sell to both sides - and ye so he became their first king. I think that story is cool.
The "NWO" trend is continuing... As expected. So the "back to normal" lasted about 9 months. Typical. The "bear market" continues. Gee maybe there is a trade war between the US and EU, bring back the good old days, stock inevsting sucked but idc about that, Forex moved all over the place (even if the amplitudes weren't that great and I also like big trends, lots of little trades is cool too)
Analysts are going to brush this off, say it's all "diplomatic pretending", they brush off so many things under the carpet it's 1 meter high now. They got an excuse for Afghanistan, for the pacific, for the other less important stuff. What will happen next? Another scam? And then that too will be "not a big deal".
Anyway, these clowns can say what they want, we will see where market participants put their money.
Nota
* US has also messed up in east Europe especially Ukraine.
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