8/8/25 - $onon - Always dip buy #1

8 ago

8/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: ONON
Always dip buy #1

- hard to deny on's success and traction
- google trends support the quarter and any guide
- always own #1 in any category such that the valuation isn't a nose bleed.

- thought process for selection/ pecking order goes like this
- are liquidity conditions improving on the margin (think +1yr)
- where are positioning (stocks, bonds, commodities, other risk)
- which industry/ cycle r we climbing where 2nd deriv +ve
- okay... now rank order 5 to the 30 stocks that are relevant (liquidity, mcap, mgmt teams, stories, charts)
- and then assign "buy today", "buy but awaiting x" (answer x), "watching, trigger at $x", "uninterested but come back" and lastly "possibly a short or at best stay away"
- i typically express the above within watchlists by type in TV and then assign colors green, dark blue, light blue, yellow, red/ and some purple (the real bruisers ;)

- so within discretionary i have a "shoe" category
- deck is top of that list when i compare a few things, size/ liquidity/ track record/ just reported (so that's in our back pocket, not the case here for ONON just yet until next week)
- ONON is also a current buy in my book (and bot it today for EPS next week) but just didn' thave that valuation trigger until crox took the whole factor down (thanks crox)
- birk doesn't compare from growth for price, but also a would buy at right px (can get into this later/ post)
- i also think crox is similar. here the thinking is... "i can spend the $1 buying onon which i think has good results next week" or "i can spend $1 buying deck which i think is severely undervalued AND just reported great results IMO"... or i can "diversify" and own some crox for a trade. for some ppl that's fine. for me, i'd rather just own the winners with the biggest torque in my book.
- sometimes that's 1 name sometimes that's 2 names (for instance for a while i couldn't decide between nvda and tsm, so i owned both and just didn't feel the need to buy the #3 which was avgo bc i thought nvda/tsm would do better - and they did. similar logic for btc vs. "crypto" alternatives)

so here we are.
don't fade the hoka
and most certainly don't fade #1

i'd also note that onon trades at the same PE as NKE with nearly 50% more cash generation/ yield and a delta on growth of 30%. lol. another point - if the marginal winner is (significantly) lower cap vs. the incumbent that it's taking share from, $1 from nke to onon will have a disproportionate effect, it's not like $5 bn cap from nke moving to ONON would mean $20 bn from the ~15 bn today. more like 2x or 3x that. remember cap is exchanged px, not the whole mcap is traded or churned when this happens. it locks up especially in winners and the bar on px resets higher, quickly.

V

13 ago

Trade attivo

honestly after seeing ANF beat and retrace, DECK beat retrace... and then you have #1 go out and tell everyone "yeah everyone who complains about the consumer--it's actually us causing that pain" beat/raise retrace.

pretty hard to want to hold LULU into print, i'll be honest. rotating a lot of DECK and all my ST LULU back into ONON here.

V