Next Move Decides the Trend: PATH’s $13 Level is Make or Break

16 mag

You're looking at UiPath Inc. (PATH), and it's a clean textbook setup "moment of truth".

PATH has rallied sharply off $11 and just tagged major overhead supply ($13), a former long-term support-turned-resistance zone. The reaction here matters a lot — it’s the line between a failed breakout and the start of a new bullish leg.

Technical Breakdown
1. Price Action – Retesting a Broken Base
Price slammed into the $12.90–$13.00 resistance, which was a clear prior demand zone that broke down in March. This is a classic bearish retest setup — price often rallies into this zone, exhausts, and rolls over.
However, if bulls absorb selling here, it flips the narrative to accumulation breakout.

2. Volume – No Conviction Yet
Volume on the way up was relatively weak, and there’s no high-volume breakout to confirm a structural shift. That favors a fade or stall, unless we see sudden buying pressure soon. Compare that to the heavy volume on the breakdown in March — sellers have muscle here.

3. MACD – Bearish Crossover
MACD just crossed bearish with declining histogram.

This suggests momentum is fading, and could be rolling over for a downside move.

The last time this happened (early April), it preceded a ~10% drop.

4. RSI – Bearish Divergence Setup
RSI made a lower high, while price made a higher high — a textbook bearish divergence.
RSI is now back to ~53, so momentum has already cooled off significantly.
This adds fuel to the argument that momentum peaked into resistance.

5. Structure + Fibonacci
The rally off the lows retraced ~61.8% of the previous selloff — a key Fib level.
If price fails to close above this Fib + structure zone, it becomes a high-probability reversal area.

$11.35 becomes the key support target if it rolls over.

The bull case hinges on:

Break above $13.30 with volume

MACD re-cross bullish with RSI > 60

Target would then be $14.25+, possibly back toward Jan highs

31 mag

Trade attivo

Let's revisit this one. The original take was spot on — the $13 zone truly was the “make or break” battleground. Now that we have the benefit of hindsight with the orange-shaded area (price evolution after the call), let’s revisit the setup and judge how it played out — and where it might go next.

🔍 Post-Mortem: What Happened After?

1. Price Action: Bulls Stepped Up
PATH held the $13 zone after a minor pullback — no breakdown occurred. Price respected structure and is now grinding higher, currently at $13.31 — above your $13.30 breakout trigger. This flips the prior bearish retest thesis into a confirmed breakout retest — bullish confirmation.

2. Volume: Still Low, But Holding
Volume didn’t spike, but bulls still managed to absorb sellers from the March breakdown. This tells us the path of least resistance is now up, unless volume collapses completely or bears re-emerge aggressively.

3. MACD: Mixed Signals
MACD had crossed bearishly and indeed, that slowed momentum. However, it did not lead to downside acceleration. MACD is now trying to turn back up — this would confirm bull control if it crosses bullish again this week.

4. RSI: Reset = Opportunity
RSI cooled off from overbought and dipped into the 50s, now curling higher. It avoided breaking down below 50, which means momentum is consolidating, not reversing.

Updated Interpretation
I think we have nailed the inflection zone — and so far, price held the line, and bears failed to regain control. The reaction proves that the bearish setup was valid, but invalidated by price strength.

Updated Bullish Thesis (Now in Play):
Breakout over $13.30 confirmed ✔️
MACD near bullish re-cross ⚠️
RSI holding >50 and curling up ✔️
Target = $14.25–14.50 next, possibly even $15 if momentum builds

If Bull Case Fails (Still Worth Monitoring):
Rejection below $13 with volume
RSI falling back below 50
MACD rolling down again

This would reopen the door to the $11.35 retest scenario.

Verdict: Bullish Resolution Confirmed – $14.25 In Sight

"Buyers defended $13.00, invalidating the bear thesis. If MACD confirms this week, PATH targets $14.25+. Trend break avoided — momentum now rebuilding."